On the shape and likelihood of oceanic rogue waves

Benetazzo, Alvise; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Bergamasco, Filippo; Cavaleri, Luigi; Guimarães, Pedro Veras; Schwendeman, Michael; Sclavo, Mauro; Thomson, Jim; Torsello, Andrea

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-07704-9

Cited by 50 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…As expected, the crests are peaky and the troughs more rounded, this evidencing the nonlinearity despite the wave buoys linearizing the sea (Longuet‐Higgins, ; Tayfun, ). The average rogue wave by (crest height criterion only) shape from the Christou and Ewans () database revealed equal minimum elevation of troughs preceding and following the peak, and the shape of six rogue waves, including the Draupner wave, revealed no relationship (Benetazzo et al, ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This can be investigated numerically with simulations of high-order spectral calculations of the Euler equations for water waves (Dommermuth & Yue, 1987;Fedele et al, 2016), and experimentally using stereo imagery to form spatiotemporal records of 3-D wavefield s (Benetazzo et al, 2012;Gallego et al, 2011). A recent study by Benetazzo et al (2017) used this method to show that the probability of encountering rogue waves in space and time is at least an order of magnitude larger than when restricting the analysis to a point time series. Additionally, the spatial element is important when considering the rogue wave encounter likelihood for ships and offshore structures, which have a spatial footprint rather than simply being at a point (Benetazzo et al, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Can Rogue Waves Be Predicted Using Characteristic Wave Parameters?

et al. 2018

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Rogue waves are ocean surface waves larger than the surrounding sea that can pose a danger to ships and offshore structures. They are often deemed unpredictable without complex measurement of the wavefield and computationally intensive calculation, which is infeasible in most applications; consequently, there a need for fast predictors. Here we collate, quality control, and analyze the largest data set of single‐point field measurements from surface following wave buoys to search for predictors of rogue wave occurrence. We find that analysis of the sea state parameters in bulk yields no predictors, as the subset of seas containing rogue waves sits within the set of seas without. However, spectral bandwidth parameters of rogue seas display different probability distributions to normal seas, but these parameters are rarely provided in wave forecasts. When location is accounted for, trends can be identified in the occurrence of rogue waves as a function of the average sea state characteristics at that location. These trends follow a power law relationship with the characteristic sea state parameters: mean significant wave height and mean zero upcrossing wave period. We find that frequency of occurrence of rogue waves and their generating mechanism is not spatially uniform, and each location is likely to have its own unique sensitivities, which increase in the coastal seas. We conclude that forecastable predictors of rogue wave occurrence will need to be location specific and reflective of their generation mechanism. Therefore, given location and a sufficiently long historical record of sea state characteristics, the likelihood of occurrence can be obtained for mariners and offshore operators.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Rogue Waves Be Predicted Using Characteristic Wave Parameters?

et al. 2018

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“…Although nonlinear modulation instability is discussed as a possible effect that can increase wave envelope steepness, the conclusion (based on the symmetric shape of the wave groups) was that random superposition of the Stokes waves was sufficient to explain the observations of individual rogue waves. Results from several other groups have independently supported the interpretation that downplays the role of modulation instability and instead highlights the role of linear interference and/or localized dispersive focusing [121,129]. On the other hand, the hindcasting analysis of rogue waves observed during Typhoon Lupit suggested that focussing nonlinearity played a role in some instances of rogue wave formation [138].…”

Section: B Rogue Waves In the Natural Environmentmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…To this end, improved approaches to satellite remote sensing continue to be explored [127] and techniques such as stereo video have been shown to be especially promising as they allow capture of the space-time evolution of the sea surface over an extended region [128,129]. There has also been significant interest in remote sensing using satellite-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) [130], but such imagery has been shown to be associated with errors due to velocity bunching and azimuthal image smear [131].…”

Section: B Rogue Waves In the Natural Environmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rogue waves and analogies in optics and oceanography

et al. 2019

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We review the study of rogue waves and related instabilities in optical and oceanic environments, with particular focus on recent experimental developments. In optics, we emphasize results arising from the use of real-time measurement techniques, whilst in oceanography we consider insights obtained from analysis of real-world ocean wave data and controlled experiments in wave tanks. Although significant progress in understanding rogue waves has been made based on an analogy between wave dynamics in optics and hydrodynamics, these comparisons have predominantly focused on one-dimensional nonlinear propagation scenarios. As a result, there remains significant debate about the dominant physical mechanisms driving the generation of ocean rogue waves in the complex environment of the open sea. Here, we review stateof-the-art of rogue wave studies in optics and hydrodynamics, aiming to clearly identify similarities and differences between the results obtained in the two fields. In hydrodynamics, we take care to review results that support both nonlinear and linear interpretations of ocean rogue wave formation, and in optics, we also summarise results from an emerging area of research applying the measurement techniques developed for the study of rogue waves to dissipative soliton systems. We conclude with a discussion of important future research directions. the underlying carrier wave is considered sinusoidal at frequency ω whereas in hydrodynamics, the NLSE envelope modulates the Stokes wave which (to second-order) contains contributions at both ω and the second harmonic 2ω [31]. In addition, even though the terminology "optical wave breaking" is used in an NLSE context to describe the steepening of an optical envelope from nonlinear focussing [32], optical carrier waves themselves do not "break" or plunge as they do in hydrodynamics [33,34]. There are also important differences concerning measurements. Specifically, experiments in optical fibres generally measure only the time-domain envelope intensity, and information about carrier oscillations is not recorded. In contrast, measurements in hydrodynamics directly record the individual carrier wave amplitudes (although envelope information can be reconstructed straightforwardly [35]). Particular care must therefore be taken when comparing statistics between optics and hydrodynamics, because statistics in fibre optics experiments are determined

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