On the Sensitivity of the Potential Evapotranspiration of Egypt to Different Initial Conditions of the Soil Moisture Using a High-resolution Regional Climate Model

Abstract

The present study investigated the sensitivity of the Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) of Egypt to different initial conditions of soil moisture using a high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RegCM4). To address this issue, two 32-year simulations were conducted from 1979 to 2010. The first two years were considered as spin-up. In the first simulation, the RegCM4 was initialized with the satellite product ESACCI (ESA) and the RegCM4 was initialized with version 3 of the Century Reanalysis Product (CEN) in the second simulation. The PET was computed using a calibrated version of the Hargreaves–Samani (HS) equation. In the two simulations, the RegCM4 was configured with the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM45). Era-Interim Reanalysis of 1.5 degrees (EIN15) was used to downscale the RegCM4 with 25 km grid spacing. The ERA5-based product (ERA5) was used as the observational dataset. The results showed that switching between ESA and CEN didn’t induce a notable influence on the daily maximum air temperature. Regarding the daily minimum air temperature, the CEN outperforms the ESA concerning the Climate Research Unit (CRU). In comparison with the ERA5 product, the CEN was able to reduce the PET negative bias (0.8 to 1.8 mm day-1) better than the one noted in the ESA (0.8 to 3 mm day-1). On a point scale, the performance of the ESA/CEN varies with the location and month. Such a point was confirmed using different statistical metrics such as mean bias, Pearson correlation coefficient and standard deviation ratio. In conclusion, the CEN can be recommended to initialize the RegCM4 to ensure a reliable estimation of the PET of Egypt either in the present climate or under different future scenarios.