On the role of solar photovoltaics in global energy transition scenarios

Abstract

The global energy system has to be transformed towards high levels of sustainability in order to comply with the COP21 agreement. Solar photovoltaic (PV) offers excellent characteristics to play a major role in this energy transition. The key objective of this work is to investigate the role of PV in the global energy transition based on respective scenarios and a newly introduced energy transition model developed by the authors. A progressive group of energy transition scenarios present results of a fast growth of installed PV capacities and a high energy supply share of solar energy to the total primary energy demand in the world in the decades to come. These progressive energy transition scenarios can be confirmed. For the very first time, a full hourly modelling for an entire year is performed for the world, subdivided in 145 sub‐regions, which is required to reflect the intermittent character of the future energy system. The model derives total installed solar PV capacity requirements of 7.1–9.1 TWp for the electricity sector (as of the year 2015) and 27.4 TWp for the entire energy system in the mid‐term. The long‐term capacity is expected to be 42 TWp and, because of the ongoing cost reduction of PV and battery technologies, this value is found to be the lower limit for the installed capacities. Solar PV electricity is expected to be the largest, least cost and most relevant source of energy in the mid‐term to long‐term for the global energy supply. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Repercussion of Large Scale Hydro Dam Deployment: The Case of Congo Grand Inga Hydro Project

“…The hourly modelling results in a more accurate system description, highlights flexibility, and presents a synergy effect of various power generation and storage technologies required to be installed to attain a fully RE-based power system. The model has been used before to conduct studies for several different regions so far, and a detailed description can be found in [38][39][40][41]. For this analysis, the integration of desalination and non-energetic industrial gas demand was not included.…”

“…PV offers economic solutions in regions with already high but also low electrification rates for new capacity additions and for meeting demands on-grid and off-grid [17,35]. Recent studies have explored the possibility of 100% RE based power systems in different countries and regions [38][39][40][41]. Barasa et al [40] described a 100% RE energy system for SSA, covering the electricity demand of the sectors power, water desalination and industrial gas.…”

“…According to the results, the least cost energy solution for SSA will be powered mainly by solar PV and complemented by wind energy [40]. The results of Barasa et al [40] are integrated in a global context in Breyer et al [41]. Blechinger et al [19] modelled two scenarios to understand the impact of future grid extension in SSA, and in both scenarios grid extension led to the highest share of electrified people followed by solar home systems and lastly mini-grids.…”

Role of Seawater Desalination in the Management of an Integrated Water and 100% Renewable Energy Based Power Sector in Saudi Arabia

“…Thus, there are no further installations in wind power plants after 2030. This result documents the outstanding impact of low cost solar PV supported by low cost battery storage that lead to a solar PV electricity generation share of 79%, which is significantly higher than the average of about 40% found in the global average assumptions for the year 2030 [25], but also higher than the 48% solar PV share for the MENA region [66]. However, comparable results had been found already earlier for the case of Israel [30], where the solar PV share had be found for cost optimized systems to about 90% of the total electricity supply.…”

“…This system eliminates the reliance of SWRO desalination plants on non-renewable fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, reflecting the Saudi government's vision of high renewable energy capacities, there is recent literature that discusses the 100% renewable energy transition of different countries and regions [25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32], as well as detailed visualization of respective electricity systems [33].…”