Diffusion processes are widely used for mathematical modeling in finance e.g. in modeling foreign exchange rates. Stochastic differential equations describing diffusion processes are linked directly to the forward Kolmogorov equations. In order to calibrate the models, efficient algorithms identifying the system parameters are in demand. Taking into account nonlinear effects in volatility and drift and dependence on observed economical data, which are not directly modeled, one obtains problems which cannot be treated by standard numerical methods. The coefficients are rapidly oscillatory and strong instabilities may arise. To handle these problem we develop special numerical methods, which are used to simulate the nonlinear dynamics of exchange rates depending on economic data.
Nonlinear Price DynamicsIt is common practice in fi nancial modeling that the price dynamics S is modeled by an Itô stochastic differential equation:( 1) Here Z(t) are external, such as economic or political effects and W is a standard Wiener process with the property that dW is distributed as N (0, dt), and µ and σ satisfy Lipschitz and growth conditions suffi cient for the existence of a continuous solution to (1). In case that all necessary coeffi cients of the model equation are known, solutions to (1) can be computed using available algorithms. However, in reality the drift term µ(·) and the volatility σ(·) are unknown and need to be determined by modeling and/or by solving a parameter estimation problem.
Parameter Estimation Problem for Nonlinear Exchange Rate DynamicsWe consider a stochastic price process S t , t ∈ [t 0 , T ] with the distribution F t (s) = P (S t ≤ s), t ∈ [t 0 , T ] and s ∈ R. It is assumed that the drift term and the volatility function of the stochastic differential equation (1) depend on the spatial variable s and unknown parameter vector θ: µ = µ(t, s; θ), σ 2 = σ 2 (t, s; θ). Using the fact that the transitional price distribution f (t, s) = dFt(s) ds of the stochastic process S t at each point of time satisfi es the forward Kolmogorov equation, see e.g.[5], we estimate the unknown parameters by solving the following optimization problemHere, the least squares functional (2) can be interpreted as a weighted norm of the difference between the real values ξ j of the random variable s at time points t j , j = 1, .., k, and their expected values. The constraints in the problem are the forward Kolmogorov equation (3) for the density function f (t, s), boundary conditions (4) and initial conditions (5) with two additional parameters a and s 0 to be estimated, η is a normalizing constant.