On the response of Indian summer monsoon to aerosol forcing in CMIP5 model simulations

Sanap, S. D.; Pandithurai, G.; Manoj, M. G.

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2516-2

Cited by 58 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…More specifically, for the model response in temperature at 200 hPa, the results reproduce the upper tropospheric warming over the ocean, but do not replicate the cooling over the Indo-Tibetan landmass. This is possibly because of the role of other processes on the upper tropospheric temperatures, such as aerosol forcing 39,40 and stratosphere-troposphere interactions 41 , which are not included in the model experiment. It may also be noted that previous studies 41 have suggested that the NCEP upper tropospheric data overestimate the cooling trend over the Indo-Tibetan landmass.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Indian Ocean and monsoon exhibit a coupled relationship 32,42,43 , and it is also possible that a feedback from a weak monsoon accelerates the warming in the Indian Ocean 22 . Some studies have suggested a role for anthropogenic aerosols in weakening the monsoon circulation during the recent decades 40,[44][45][46][47][48] . It is possible that such a weakened circulation amplifies the SST warming due to a decreased evaporation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Trend in precip and winds Model response in precip/winds to WIO warming ARTICLE Though the observed increase in anthropogenic aerosols may not have a direct effect in warming the Indian Ocean, they may have a potential role in suppressing (or even cooling) the surface warming over the South Asian domain in the recent decades 39,40 . Aerosols could be considered as the perfect partner in reducing the land-sea thermal contrast, along with a warming Indian Ocean.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Aerosols could be considered as the perfect partner in reducing the land-sea thermal contrast, along with a warming Indian Ocean. An evaluation of the CMIP5 models 40 suggests that aerosols could potentially reduce the incoming solar radiation over the IndoGangetic plain, thereby cooling the surface. However, it may be pointed out that majority of these models could not simulate the spatial distribution of aerosols or related processes over the South Asian subcontinent 40 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An evaluation of the CMIP5 models 40 suggests that aerosols could potentially reduce the incoming solar radiation over the IndoGangetic plain, thereby cooling the surface. However, it may be pointed out that majority of these models could not simulate the spatial distribution of aerosols or related processes over the South Asian subcontinent 40 . Also, ambiguity still remains on the extent of cooling (or warming) induced by different types of aerosols [45][46][47] .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

et al. 2015

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There are large uncertainties looming over the status and fate of the South Asian summer monsoon, with several studies debating whether the monsoon is weakening or strengthening in a changing climate. Our analysis using multiple observed datasets demonstrates a significant weakening trend in summer rainfall during 1901-2012 over the central-east and northern regions of India, along the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins and the Himalayan foothills, where agriculture is still largely rain-fed. Earlier studies have suggested an increase in moisture availability and land-sea thermal gradient in the tropics due to anthropogenic warming, favouring an increase in tropical rainfall. Here we show that the land-sea thermal gradient over South Asia has been decreasing, due to rapid warming in the Indian Ocean and a relatively subdued warming over the subcontinent. Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, we provide compelling evidence that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming potentially weakens the land-sea thermal contrast, dampens the summer monsoon Hadley circulation, and thereby reduces the rainfall over parts of South Asia.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

et al. 2015

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Long‐term trends of typhoon‐induced rainfall over Taiwan: In situ evidence of poleward shift of typhoons in western North Pacific in recent decades

et al. 2017

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A significant poleward shift of tropical cyclones (TCs or typhoons) and TC‐induced storm surge in the western North Pacific has occurred in recent decades. Here we use 64 year rainfall observations around Taiwan to provide an independent evidence of the shift. We show that, due to the island's unique location relative to typhoon tracks, TC‐induced rainfall trends are significantly rising west and north of the island but are insignificant east and southeast, caused by a preference in recent decades for TCs to veer more poleward. Analyses of large‐scale fields indicate that the TCs' poleward shift is caused by the weakening of the steering flow and western North Pacific subtropical high, which in turn is due to tropic‐subtropical Indo‐Pacific warming and a weakened monsoon, consistent with the expansion of the tropics due to climate change.

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Evaluation of the added value of a high‐resolution regional climate model simulation of the South Asian summer monsoon climatology

Karmacharya

Jones

Moufouma-Okia

et al. 2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is a continental scale weather phenomenon, which fluctuates at a range of temporal and spatial scales. Although majority of global climate models are broadly able to simulate the large scale characteristics of the SASM, they generally have major deficiencies such as constraints in reproducing observed mean precipitation. It is generally anticipated that higher resolution regional climate models (RCMs) would be able to simulate an improved mean state owing to their capacity to better simulate fine temporal and spatial scale features and variability. Here, we analyse SASM simulations using a contemporary Hadley Centre RCM, forced by ERA‐Interim reanalysis and observed sea surface temperature, at medium (0.44°) and high (0.11°) horizontal resolutions. Evaluation of the results show that, compared to the medium resolution RCM, the high resolution RCM is able to better resolve the interaction of the low level monsoon flow with the Himalayan orography leading to added value in simulating many aspects of SASM precipitation such as the seasonal mean, relative frequency distribution of daily precipitation, and various metrics of precipitation extremes. In contrast to many previous studies, maximum added value is note along the Indo‐Gangetic plain rather than over the complex Himalayas, and the added values of up to 5 mm day−1 and 50 days are noted for mean precipitation and number of wet days, respectively over the region. Similarly, added values of up to 15 and 3 mm day−1 are noted for 95th percentile of daily precipitation and simple daily intensity index, respectively over central India and the Himalayan range. These results suggest that higher resolution RCMs have the potential to add more value when downscaling global climate model climate change projections.

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On the response of Indian summer monsoon to aerosol forcing in CMIP5 model simulations

Cited by 58 publications

References 50 publications

Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

Long‐term trends of typhoon‐induced rainfall over Taiwan: In situ evidence of poleward shift of typhoons in western North Pacific in recent decades

Evaluation of the added value of a high‐resolution regional climate model simulation of the South Asian summer monsoon climatology

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