On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes – Part 1: Statistical models and spatial fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry

Frossard, Linda; Rieder, Harald E.; Ribatet, Mathieu; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Rocco, S. Di; Davison, A. C.; Peter, Thomas

doi:10.5194/acp-13-147-2013

Cited by 47 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 64 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…1a) indicate evident TCO negative trends over the North Pacific, East Asia, Caspian Sea and the northwestern Atlantic Ocean; whereas the TCO decreasing trends over the northeastern Pacific, northwestern North America, the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, Europe and Central Siberia (45°-60°N, 85°-120°E) are weak and even reversed over some regions. Similar features in TCO trends in the northern middle latitudes can be also found in Frossard et al (2013) which separated the TCO trend attributed to ODSs from that due to dynamical variabilities. The above features are more noticeable in the linear trend map of TCO anomalies with zonal mean removed (Fig.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 58%

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

et al. 2018

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Using various satellite-based observations, a linear ozone transport model (LOTM), a chemistry-climate model (WACCM3) and an offline chemical transport model (SLIMCAT), zonally asymmetric trends of the total column ozone (TCO) in the northern middle latitudes during winter for the period 1979-2015 are analyzed and factors responsible for the trends are diagnosed. The results reveal that there are significant negative TCO trends over the North Pacific and positive TCO trends over the northwestern North America. The zonally asymmetric TCO trends are mainly contributed by the trends in partial column ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) which are closely related to the long-term changes of geopotential height in the troposphere. Furthermore, the trends of geopontential height in the UTLS are mainly modulated by pattern changes in the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Cold Ocean-Warm Land (COWL) and the North Pacific (NP) index. Accordingly, the zonally asymmetric TCO trends can be largely reconstructed by the trends of the above three teleconnection patterns. Sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean can also exert a significant contribution to the zonally asymmetric TCO trends through their influence on the COWL and NP patterns. In addition, chemical ozone loss partially offsets the positive trends in zonal TCO anomalies over Central Siberia and enhances the positive TCO trends over northwestern North America. However, the contribution of chemical processes to the zonally asymmetric TCO trends is relatively smaller than that of dynamical transport effects. Interpreting the zonally asymmetric TCO trends and their responsible factors would be helpful for accurately predicting the stratospheric ozone return date in the northern middle latitudes.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 58%

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

et al. 2018

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“…However, for Arosa's PC score 3 the QBO1 covariate has EDF of 0.2 (Table 1), thus it is insignificant. In addition, Frossard et al (2013) found that the total ozone exhibits an increase due to variability in QBO 50 hPa (QBO2) over the US, while a change in total ozone is found to be negative over Europe. However, results might be less significant; see Fig.…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Secondly, the sensitivity of total ozone variability to the QBO signal has been discussed in Frossard et al (2013). They found that QBO 30 hPa (QBO1) has a negative contribution to total ozone variability over the US (Boulder) and some of Europe (Arosa), and the contribution is significant (smaller p value than 1 %).…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to some authors (Reinsel, 2002;Newchurch et al, 2003;Dhomse et al, 2003;Hood and Soukharev, 2005;Miller et al, 2006), the solar cycle is usually one of the major contributors to ozone trend in the upper and middle stratosphere (PC scores 2, 3, 5). On the other hand, Frossard et al (2013) showed that the contribution of the solar signal to total ozone is highly regional and seasonal. The reason is that the effect of the solar signal in the lower stratosphere is indirect, and of a mostly dynamical nature that corresponds to the changes in transport.…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends in stratospheric ozone profiles using functional mixed models

2013

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Abstract. This paper is devoted to the modeling of altitudedependent patterns of ozone variations over time. Umkehr ozone profiles (quarter of Umkehr layer) from 1978 to 2011 are investigated at two locations: Boulder (USA) and Arosa (Switzerland). The study consists of two statistical stages. First we approximate ozone profiles employing an appropriate basis. To capture primary modes of ozone variations without losing essential information, a functional principal component analysis is performed. It penalizes roughness of the function and smooths excessive variations in the shape of the ozone profiles. As a result, data-driven basis functions (empirical basis functions) are obtained. The coefficients (principal component scores) corresponding to the empirical basis functions represent dominant temporal evolution in the shape of ozone profiles. We use those time series coefficients in the second statistical step to reveal the important sources of the patterns and variations in the profiles. We estimate the effects of covariates -month, year (trend), quasibiennial oscillation, the solar cycle, the Arctic oscillation, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation cycle and the Eliassen-Palm flux -on the principal component scores of ozone profiles using additive mixed effects models. The effects are represented as smooth functions and the smooth functions are estimated by penalized regression splines. We also impose a heteroscedastic error structure that reflects the observed seasonality in the errors. The more complex error structure enables us to provide more accurate estimates of influences and trends, together with enhanced uncertainty quantification. Also, we are able to capture fine variations in the time evolution of the profiles, such as the semi-annual oscillation. We conclude by showing the trends by altitude over Boulder and Arosa, as well as for total column ozone. There are great variations in the trends across altitudes, which highlights the benefits of modeling ozone profiles.

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“…Several studies investigated the evolution of low ozone episodes at mid-latitudes (Anton et al 2008;Bojkov and Balis 2001;Brönnimann and Hood 2003;Fitzka et al 2014;Frossard et al 2013;Hood et al 2001;Iwao and Hirooka 2006;James 1998;Koch et al 2005;Krzyscin 2002;Newman et al 1988;Petzoldt 1999;Rieder et al 2010aRieder et al , b, 2011Rieder et al , 2013. The definitions for low ozone episodes, often referred to as ozone miniholes, vary among studies, and to date, only few studies have analyzed changes in the UV field during low ozone episodes and the general connection between low ozone episodes and UV levels (e.g., Anton et al 2008;Bartlett and Webb 2000;Fragkos et al 2016;MartinezLozano et al 2011;McKenzie et al 1991;Rieder et al 2010c).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of low ozone episodes on erythemal UV-B radiation in Austria

Schwarz

Baumgartner

Pietsch

et al. 2017

Theor Appl Climatol

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This study investigates the influence of low ozone episodes on UV-B radiation in Austria during the period 1999 to 2015. To this aim observations of total column ozone (TCO) in the Greater Alpine Region (Arosa, Switzerland; Hohenpeissenberg, Germany; Hradec Kralove, Czech Republic; Sonnblick, Austria), and erythemal UV-B radiation, available from 12 sites of the Austrian UV-B monitoring network, are analyzed. As previous definitions for low ozone episodes are not particularly suited to investigate effects on UV radiation, a novel threshold approach-considering anomalies-is developed to provide a joint framework for the analysis of extremes. TCO and UV extremes are negatively correlated, although modulating effects of sunshine duration impact the robustness of the statistical relationship. Therefore, information on relative sunshine duration (SD rel ), available at (or nearby) UV-B monitoring sites, is included as explanatory variable in the analysis. The joint analysis of anomalies of both UV index (UVI) and total ozone (ΔUVI, ΔTCO) and SD rel across sites shows that more than 65% of observations with strongly negative ozone anomalies (ΔTCO < −1) led to positive UVI anomalies. Considering only days with strongly positive UVI anomaly (ΔUVI > 1), we find (across all sites) that about 90% correspond to negative ΔTCO. The remaining 10% of days occurred during fair weather conditions (SD rel ≥ 80%) explaining the appearance of ΔUVI > 1 despite positive TCO anomalies. Further, we introduce an anomaly amplification factor (AAF), which quantifies the expected change of the ΔUVI for a given change in ΔTCO.

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On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes – Part 1: Statistical models and spatial fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry

Cited by 47 publications

References 64 publications

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

Trends in stratospheric ozone profiles using functional mixed models

Influence of low ozone episodes on erythemal UV-B radiation in Austria

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