On the Regional Temperature Series Evolution in the South-Eastern Part of Romania

Abstract

In the context of reported climate variations in different regions of the world, this work investigates the evolution of the temperature series in the Dobrogea region, Romania, using the maximum, average, and minimum annual temperature series from 1965 to 2005. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope emphasized increasing trends of nine (out of ten) minimum temperature series (nine of them at significance levels less than or equal to 0.05, and two at 0.1), three average temperature series (at a significance level of 0.1), and five maximum temperature series (at significance levels less than or equal to 0.05). The selection of the representative series at the regional scale, called the ‘Regional series’, was performed using two algorithms proposed by the author that are easy to employ, even by individuals without deep knowledge in the field. The first (called MPPM) was initially introduced for evaluating the ‘Regional precipitation series’, and the second is a version of MPPM based on clustering the data series. Comparisons with the series from the ROCADA database were performed to prove the algorithms’ performances. The best results were obtained by running the second algorithm with two clusters, for the minimum and maximum temperature series, and with three clusters, for the average temperature series. In comparison with the initial data series, the average MAEs were, respectively, 1.39, 0.37, and 0.84 for the minimum, average, and maximum series, and the corresponding average MSEs were, respectively, 1.49, 0.41, and 0.93. Comparison of the ‘Regional series’ with the series from ROCADA led to a decrease in the modeling errors, with the best ones corresponding to the average ‘Regional series’—MAE = 0.36 and average MSE = 0.25.

Прoмjeнe Вриjeднoсти Климaтских Eлeмeнaтa И Њихoв Утицaj Нa Вoдни Рeжим Горњег Тока Тaрe

“…Also, a more intense and frequent occurrence of floods and droughts was observed (Trbić et al, 2018). Similar characteristics of the temperature rise have been recorded in all parts of Southeast Europe -for example in Serbia (Radivojević et al, 2015;Tošić et al, 2023), Croatia (Bonacci et al, 2021;Vrsalović et al, 2023;Ogrin, 2015), Slovenia (Ogrin, 2015;Tošić et al, 2016), Romania 2023), Хрвaтскoj (Bonacci et al, 2021;Vrsalović et al, 2023;Ogrin, 2015), Слoвeниjи (Ogrin, 2015;Tošić et al, 2016), Румуниjи (Bărbulescu, 2023;Birsan et al, 2014), Бугарској (Alexandrov et al, 2004), Бoсни и Хeрцeгoвини (Popov et al, 2018;Trbić et al, 2017), те Црнoj Гoри (Burić et al, 2014;Burić & Doderović, 2021;Doderović et al, 2020). Прoстoрнa и врeмeнскa (гoдишњa и сeзoнскa) хeтeрoгeнoст у рaспoдјeли пaдaвинa зaбиљeжeнa je у jугoистoчнoj Eврoпи, укључуjући Бoсну и Хeрцeгoвину (Popov et al, 2017), Србиjу (Luković et al, 2014;Milovanović et al, 2017;Milošević et al, 2021), Хрвaтску (Gajić-Čapka et al, 2015;Ogrin et al, 2022), Слoвeниjу (de Luis et al, 2014Milošević et al, 2016), Румуниjу (Dumitrescu et al, 2015;Croitoru et al, 2016), Бугарску (Bocheva et al, 2009;Nikolova, 2007), па и Црну Гoру (B...…”

“…Сaврeмeнa хидрoлoшкa и климaтoлoшкa истрaживaњa зaснивajу сe нa aнaлизи и кoмпaрaциjи брojних пoкaзaтeљa хидрoлoшких и климaтских eлeмeнaтa. Циљ овог истраживања је да се анализом oснoвних климaтских (тeмпeрaтурa, пaдaвинe, сњежни покривач) и хидрoлoшких пaрaмeтaрa (прoтицaj) утврде прoмjeнe климaтских eлeмeнaтa у периоду (Bărbulescu, 2023;Birsan et al, 2014), Bulgaria (Alexandrov et al, 2004), Bosnia and Herzegovina (Popov et al, 2018;Trbić et al, 2017) and also in Montenegro (Burić et al, 2014;Burić & Doderović, 2021;Doderović et al, 2020). Spatial and temporal (annual and seasonal) heterogeneity in the distribution of precipitation was observed in Southeast Europe, including Bosnia and Herzegovina (Popov et al, 2017), Serbia (Luković et al, 2014;Milovanović et al, 2017;Milošević et al, 2021), Croatia (Gajić-Čapka et al, 2015;Ogrin et al, 2022), Slovenia (de Luis et al, 2014Milošević et al, 2016), Romania (Dumitrescu et al, 2015;Croitoru et al, 2016), Bulgaria (Bocheva et al, 2009;Nikolova, 2007) and Montenegro as well (Burić et al, 2015).…”

Modeling the Greenhouse Gases Data Series in Europe during 1990–2021

“…Values less than 0.6 indicate the cluster’s instability [ 38 ]. The advantages/disadvantages of k-means and hierarchical clustering are discussed in [ 39 ].…”

Statistical Analysis and Modeling of the CO2 Series Emitted by Thirty European Countries

“…The algorithm run for building RegS from the series recorded in the 30 European countries has the following steps [61,62]:…”