On the reduced macroeconomic volatility of the Australian economy: Good policy or good luck?

Wellbeing trajectories around life events in Australia

“…Hence, we employ a fixed effects estimator in conjunction with our range of control variables, precise details of which are given in Appendix Table 1. While it is not feasible to give a blow by blow account of all regressions over all life event aspects, the results did conform to a priori 4 The Australian economy has been characterized by reduced macroeconomic volatility over the past 40 years (Cross, 2019) and for both men and women there are substantial outflows from unemployment from any given year to the next as identified within HILDA. Between 2001 and 2014, well over 40% of men exited from unemployment into employment each year and consistently over 20% of them transitioned from unemployment to not being in the labour force.…”

Time‐varying trend models for forecasting inflation in Australia

“…The first differences of CPI inflation and the unemployment rates. CPI, consumer price index been attributed to good monetary policy by the RBA (Cross, 2019).…”

“…However, h begins to increase from 2005 under both models, whereas g is stable around those years. As discussed in Cross (2019), the increase in volatility in the early 2000s is likely due to the commencement of Australia's resource boom, whereas the reduction in volatility in the 2010s follows the decline of the boom. 4…”

“…As discussed in Cross (2019), the formal announcement of an explicit inflation target was made in 1996; however, reference to a target was made in official RBA speeches in August of 1992 and 1993. With this in mind, we start the forecast evaluation period in 1993Q3; however, the results are also robust to starting the forecast evaluation sample in 1992Q3.…”