On The Quantitative Definition of Risk

Kaplan, Stan; Garrick, B. John

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x

Cited by 2,453 publications

(1,273 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…We are then able to select, on the basis of severity, nature and extent of the problem, one or more use-scenarios for in-depth investigation. (For further discussion on scenarios see also Drury and Brill (1983), Gelderblom (1988), Jungerman and Thuring (1987), and Kaplan and Garrick (1981). )…”

Section: The Use-scenario Conceptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios in the design process

Stoop

1990

Applied Ergonomics

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has developed a method by which the input of safety in the design process is structured through the application of use-scenarios and hazard patterns. The approach is illustrated with case studies in the field of agricultural equipment (pneumatic pruning shears, power chain saws and power-take-off shafts).Use-scenarios and hazard patterns result from safety problem analyses and give structure to the problem space and assist in the explanation of accidents. Selection of solutions is facilitated by a matrix scheme which links technical design options and measures of a social and organisational nature into a set of coherent measures. In the evaluation of designs, the application of use-scenarios and hazard patterns is helpful as a predictor of residual risks. Incorporating safety in the design process is a dynamic decision-making process. The decisions involved and the role of the safety expert in this process are discussed.Application of the method to the design of tools and consumer products seems very promising, although several problems remain. Valid accident data for use in the method are scarce; the technique for the translation of safety requirements into design specifications is still not fully developed and the first projects are only now being carried through to the implementation stage.

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Section: The Use-scenario Conceptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios in the design process

Stoop

1990

Applied Ergonomics

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“…It depends on their social, cultural and economic backgrounds and values (Kaplan and Garrick, 1981). Risk also means many different things to one person.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The probabilistic interpretation of risk implies that managing probability or consequence or both can influence risk. This way risk is a twodimensional definition that should be considered a simplified interpretation of what is, in reality, a multidimensional concept (Kaplan and Garrick, 1981). It is also apparent that whoever controls the definition of risk, also controls the rational solution (Slovic, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The release of genetically modified crops into the environment

2003

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SummaryDespite numerous future promises, there is a multitude of concerns about the impact of GM crops on the environment. Key issues in the environmental assessment of GM crops are putative invasiveness, vertical or horizontal gene flow, other ecological impacts, effects on biodiversity and the impact of presence of GM material in other products. These are all highly interdisciplinary and complex issues. A crucial component for a proper assessment is defining the appropriate baseline for comparison and decision. For GM crops, the best and most appropriately defined reference point is the impact of plants developed by traditional breeding. The latter is an integral and accepted part of agriculture. In many instances, the putative impacts identified for GM crops are very similar to the impacts of new cultivars derived from traditional breeding. When assessing GM crops relative to existing cultivars, the increased knowledge base underpinning the development of GM crops will provide greater confidence in the assurances plant science can give on the risks of releasing such crops.

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“…(ISO, 2008) Ou ainda, hazard seria "source of danger" ou "possibility of incurring loss or misfortune" (KAPLAN & GARRICK, 1981;LAPA & GOES, 2011).…”

Section: Perigomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…O potencial de ocorrer algo dá a ideia de chance (KAPLAN & GARRICK, 1981). É justamente por isso que, a classificação resultante das análises de riscos estabelece uma relação entre o parâmetro "probabilidade" e o parâmetro "severidade", ou seja, a chance de determinado evento indesejado ocorrer, com dada severidade.…”

Section: Probabilidadeunclassified

Análise de riscos para redução dos riscos de segurança em uma pedreira paulista.

Leinfelder¹,

Tomi²

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On The Quantitative Definition of Risk

Cited by 2,453 publications

References 7 publications

Scenarios in the design process

Scenarios in the design process

The release of genetically modified crops into the environment

Análise de riscos para redução dos riscos de segurança em uma pedreira paulista.

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