On the progress of the 2015–2016 El Niño event

Varotsos, C.; Tzanis, Chris G.; Sarlis, N. V.

doi:10.5194/acp-16-2007-2016

Cited by 63 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(43 reference statements)

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“…In other words, the time series of ∆S 20 captures the dynamics of ENSO and exhibits clear precursory signals before strong El Niño events. Within this frame, the successful prediction that the 2015-2016 El Niño event would be rather a "moderate to strong" or even a "strong" event and not "one of the strongest on record", as that of 1997-1998, has been made [127].…”

Section: Forecasting the Intensity Of El Niño/la Niña Southern Oscillmentioning

confidence: 99%

Entropy in Natural Time and the Associated Complexity Measures

Sarlis

2017

Entropy

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Natural time is a new time domain introduced in 2001. The analysis of time series associated with a complex system in natural time may provide useful information and may reveal properties that are usually hidden when studying the system in conventional time. In this new time domain, an entropy has been defined, and complexity measures based on this entropy, as well as its value under time-reversal have been introduced and found applications in various complex systems. Here, we review these applications in the electric signals that precede rupture, e.g., earthquakes, in the analysis of electrocardiograms, as well as in global atmospheric phenomena, like the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation.

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Section: Forecasting the Intensity Of El Niño/la Niña Southern Oscillmentioning

confidence: 99%

Entropy in Natural Time and the Associated Complexity Measures

Sarlis

2017

Entropy

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“…Finally, for data such as those usually collected in atmospheric physics involving hourly, daily or even monthly observations which may acquire both positive and negative values, such as Troup [21] SOI, depicted in upper panel of Fig.1(f), the NTA can be performed [125,127] by adding an appropriate constant so that all values become non negative as shown for example in the lower panel of Fig.1(f) and then proceed to the study of the resulting time series by ∆S l .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…the paper has been initially submitted [127,128] on 13 November 2015). As it is also shown in this figure, the subsequent values of SOI never left the green colored region that corresponds to the minimum values of SOI for 'weak, weak to moderate, moderate, moderate to strong' El Niño events validating the aforementioned prediction.…”

Section: Forecasting the Intensity Of El Niño/la Niña Southern Oscillmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…6 where the probability density function (PDF) of ∆S 20 is shown (for details on its determination see Ref. [127]) and compared with the extreme ∆S 20 values measured during very strong El Niño events. An inspection of this figure together with Fig.5 reveals that indeed the ∆S 20 values up to October 2015 never exceeded the extreme values measured before or during the strongest El Niño events ever recorded.…”

Section: Forecasting the Intensity Of El Niño/la Niña Southern Oscillmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[127] and has been made as compromise between the costs of false positive and false negative predictions. The two colored horizontal stripes represent the mean minimum negative values of SOI along with the one standard deviation bands for the two cases of 'weak, weak to moderate, moderate, moderate to strong' (green band) and 'strong, very strong' (yellow band) El Niño events [127].…”

Section: Ozone Hole Dynamics Over Antarticamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Entropy in Natural Time and the Associated Complexity Measures

Sarlis¹

2017

Preprint

Self Cite

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Natural time is a new time domain introduced in 2001. The analysis of time series associated with a complex system in natural time may provide useful information and may reveal properties that are usually hidden when studying the system in conventional time. In this new time domain, an entropy has been defined and complexity measures based on this entropy as well as its value under time-reversal have been introduced and found applications in various complex systems. Here, we review these applications in the electric signals that precede rupture, e.g., earthquakes, in the analysis of electrocardiograms, as well as in global atmospheric phenomena like the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation.

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Seasonal dynamics of particulate organic matter and its response to flooding in the Pearl River Estuary, China, revealed by stable isotope (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) analyses

Guo

et al. 2017

JGR Oceans

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Nine cruises were conducted on a seasonal basis from 2013 to 2015 to investigate the spatial distribution and seasonal variability of δ13C and δ15N in particulate organic matter (POM), and its response to flooding in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), south China. Our study reveals highly variable isotope ratios between seasons in this subtropical estuary, following seasonal climatic and hydrological cycles. Wet seasons had more isotopically depleted δ13C values, indicating the dominance of terrestrial and freshwater algae POM, whereas the contribution from marine phytoplankton (16%–59%) was higher during the dry seasons. In contrast, δ15N exhibited a sharp increase (up to 17.6‰) at low salinities (0–5) during high flow seasons. This was consistent with high NO3− concentrations, reflecting phytoplankton and bacteria assimilation of δ15N enriched‐ NO3− as well as notable isotope fractionation during microbial mineralization. There was little annual variability in δ13C over the 2 year period; however, particulate nitrogen (PN) exhibited lower concentrations but more enriched isotope values in 2015 than in 2014. This can be best explained by temperature‐modulated biological processing of particulate organic nitrogen, partially due to different biogeochemical responses during normal (2014) and strong El Niño (2015) years. After flooding in June 2015, terrestrial organic matter and freshwater phytoplankton were the major components of POM within the estuary and shelf areas, whereas marine phytoplankton was the dominant component in the adjacent coastal waters with mid‐salinities (10 < S < 20), as revealed by a phytoplankton bloom (>10 μg L−1) and δ13C‐enriched but δ15N‐depleted POM.

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On the progress of the 2015–2016 El Niño event

Cited by 63 publications

References 42 publications

Entropy in Natural Time and the Associated Complexity Measures

Entropy in Natural Time and the Associated Complexity Measures

Entropy in Natural Time and the Associated Complexity Measures

Seasonal dynamics of particulate organic matter and its response to flooding in the Pearl River Estuary, China, revealed by stable isotope (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) analyses

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On the progress of the 2015–2016 El Niño event

Cited by 63 publications

References 42 publications

Entropy in Natural Time and the Associated Complexity Measures

Entropy in Natural Time and the Associated Complexity Measures

Entropy in Natural Time and the Associated Complexity Measures

Seasonal dynamics of particulate organic matter and its response to flooding in the Pearl River Estuary, China, revealed by stable isotope (δ13C and δ15N) analyses

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Product

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Seasonal dynamics of particulate organic matter and its response to flooding in the Pearl River Estuary, China, revealed by stable isotope (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) analyses