On the prediction of rainfall onset and retreat dates in Nigeria

Odekunle, Theophilus O.; Balogun, E. E.; Ogunkoya, O. O.

doi:10.1007/s00704-004-0108-x

Cited by 66 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Although the inter-annual variability in the SST of the GOG, as observed in this study, is generally low, studies have shown that the SST patterns greatly perturb the rainfall-producing systems of West Africa (Folland et al, 1991;Berte and Ward, 1998;Philippon and Fontaine, 2000;Omotosho et al, 2000;Gbuyiro et al, 2002;Wilson, 2002;Odekunle and Gbuyiro, 2003;Odekunle et al, 2005;British Met Office, 2006). The results of the SST patterns as observed in this study appear to have the following implications for the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation in West Africa:…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 46%

“…The existing forecasting organizations that are famous in this regard include: Department of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA (Berte and Ward, 1998); Central Forecasting Office (CFO), Oshodi, Lagos (CFO, 1999); Center de Recharche de Climatologic, 21 000 Dijon-France (Philippon and Fontaine, 2000); and UK Meteorological Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom (British Met Office, 2006). Some individuals who have attempted precipitation forecasting of the region include: Folland et al (1991), Omotosho et al (2000), Gbuyiro et al (2002), Wilson (2002), Odekunle and Gbuyiro (2003), Odekunle et al (2005), among others. Virtually, all the existing forecasting organizations and most individuals have identified the sea surface temperature (SST) as the best predictor variable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sea surface temperature patterns in the Gulf of Guinea: their implications for the spatio‐temporal variability of precipitation in West Africa

Odekunle

Eludoyin

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study examined the sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Gulf of Guinea (GOG) and discussed their implications for the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation in West Africa. The SST data spanning over 49 years at 2°× 2°resolutions were sourced from the archive of the International Research Institute for climate prediction. The specific locations where data were collected to represent the GOG are longitudes 10°W, 8°W, 6°W, 4°W, 2°W, 0°, 2°E, 4°E, 6°E, and 8°E, and latitudes 5°N, 3°N, 1°N, 1°S, 3°S, and 5°S. The results obtained show that the SST in the GOG generally decreases westward and southward, while the reverse of the case holds for its variability values. Detailed observations show that the SST is generally below the latitudinal average and its variability values, above the latitudinal average mainly between longitudes 8°W and 2°E. The results also show that during the period of July-AugustSeptember, the SST is anomalously colder between longitudes 8°W and 2°E and the West African coastal border and latitude 3°N. This area was observed as constituting the area of the coastal upwelling. The intra-annual distribution of the SST, as evident along latitudes 3°N and 5°N, shows two main regimes and two transitional periods in between the regimes. The first regime is November to May, and the second, July to September. The first regime transits to the second during the month of June and the second back to the first, during the month of October. The comparative analysis of the first and second half of the period of study indicates that the SST of the GOG has undergone some warming over time. The comparison also shows that although the SST has generally risen, an area of relatively cool SST near the Guinea coast has expanded from longitudes 7°W-0°W to 8°W-3°E.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 46%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea surface temperature patterns in the Gulf of Guinea: their implications for the spatio‐temporal variability of precipitation in West Africa

Odekunle

Eludoyin

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Thus on the average, the length of the wet season in the region has consistently been 8 months. Studies (including Bello 1995;Adejuwon et al 1990;Odekunle 2004;Odekunle et al 2005) have established March/April and June as the periods of rainfall onsets in the areas selected to represent the double rainfall maxima and single rainfall maximum, respectively. Their respective retreat periods were also found to be the months of October and September.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing changes in the rainfall regime in Nigeria between 1961 and 2004

Odekunle

Adejuwon

2007

GeoJournal

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The study assessed changes in the rainfall regime in Nigeria between 1961 and 2004 in terms of (a) absolute seasonality-the length of dry and wet season; (b) relative seasonality-rainfall contrast during the year; (c) number of rainfall maxima and minima; and (d) timing of rainfall maxima and minima. Trends in the mean monthly surface locations of the Inter-tropical Discontinuity (ITD) were also examined as a prominent factor of the rainfall regime. Changes in the regime were examined over four time slices:

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“…In these methods, the onset and end of the precipitation season is equated to the onset and end of the growing season (Benoit, 1977;Odekunle et al, 2005). These methods do not help clarify the relationship between the onset of the growing and precipitation seasons, when the seasons are not entirely synchronised.…”

Section: Onset Cessation and Duration Of The Precipitation Seasonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relating seasonal dynamics of enhanced vegetation index to the recycling of water in two endorheic river basins in north-west China

Matin

Bourque

2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This study associates the dynamics of enhanced vegetation index in lowland desert oases to the recycling of water in two endorheic (hydrologically closed) river basins in Gansu Province, north-west China, along a gradient of elevation zones and land cover types. Each river basin was subdivided into four elevation zones representative of (i) oasis plains and foothills, and (ii) low-, (iii) mid-, and (iv) highmountain elevations. Comparison of monthly vegetation phenology with precipitation and snowmelt dynamics within the same basins over a 10-year period (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) suggested that the onset of the precipitation season (cumulative % precipitation > 7-8 %) in the mountains, typically in late April to early May, was triggered by the greening of vegetation and increased production of water vapour at the base of the mountains. Seasonal evolution of in-mountain precipitation correlated fairly well with the temporal variation in oasisvegetation coverage and phenology characterised by monthly enhanced vegetation index, yielding coefficients of determination of 0.65 and 0.85 for the two basins. Convergent cross-mapping of related time series indicated bi-directional causality (feedback) between the two variables. Comparisons between same-zone monthly precipitation amounts and enhanced vegetation index provided weaker correlations. Start of the growing season in the oases was shown to coincide with favourable spring warming and discharge of meltwater from low-to mid-elevations of the Qilian Mountains (zones 1 and 2) in mid-to-late March. In terms of plant requirement for water, mid-seasonal development of oasis vegetation was seen to be controlled to a greater extent by the production of rain in the mountains. Comparison of water volumes associated with in-basin production of rainfall and snowmelt with that associated with evaporation seemed to suggest that about 90 % of the available liquid water (i.e. mostly in the form of direct rainfall and snowmelt in the mountains) was recycled locally.

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On the prediction of rainfall onset and retreat dates in Nigeria

Cited by 66 publications

References 17 publications

Sea surface temperature patterns in the Gulf of Guinea: their implications for the spatio‐temporal variability of precipitation in West Africa

Sea surface temperature patterns in the Gulf of Guinea: their implications for the spatio‐temporal variability of precipitation in West Africa

Assessing changes in the rainfall regime in Nigeria between 1961 and 2004

Relating seasonal dynamics of enhanced vegetation index to the recycling of water in two endorheic river basins in north-west China

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