The predicted performance of tropospheric scatter transmission is investigated in terms of spectrum slope, refractive index variance, and scale of turbulence. The common volume integral is evaluated to yield a useful expression for path loss in terms of these parameters. Formulas for the coupling loss in the asymptotic case of very wide and very narrow antenna beams are derived. Approximate formulas for intermediate size antenna beams are deduced and compared with more exact computer calculations. Our results suggest that previous path loss prediction methods do not place enough emphasis on turbulent scatter and that a model with spectrum slope 11/3 should be used. The resulting model provides an initial step toward the development of a simpler and more realistic alternative to the NBS model, and also refines a related approach by Gjessing.