On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes

Cooke, Roger M.; ElSaadany, Susie; Huang, Xianjin

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.017

Cited by 61 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Alternatively, the weights may be taken as equal, perhaps on some Laplacian Principle of Indifference, or of equity, or, even, on the basis that all the experts are paid the same fee. 3 Recently, it has been suggested that the weights might be defined from the social network which surrounds the experts, one operationalisation being the relative frequency with which their work is cited in the literature [37], though I do not find this persuasive since it may be biased, e.g., by length of career, towards academics who tend to publish more than professionals and consultants, and towards those who write their papers in English.…”

Section: The Expert Problem: a Brief Survey Of Developmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A Bayesian would surely believe this. Moreover, any use of social networking to define weights implicitly acknowledges unequal expertise [37]. Neutrality is persuasive, and Cooke uses it to justify his classical weighting scheme on the basis of scoring rules [32].…”

Section: The Textbook Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…That would allow subsequent analyses to consider inter-expert correlations, and for their skills to be judged against their wider track record: cf. the ideas behind Cooke et al [37]. The database of expert judgement studies created by Cooke et al [38] provides exemplars of the sort of publication format one would wish for.…”

Section: Meta-analysis For Expert Judgementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Aggregating expert judgement

French

2011

RACSAM

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In a paper written some 25 years ago, I distinguished three contexts in which one might wish to combine expert judgements of uncertainty: the expert problem, the group decision problem and the textbook problem. Over the intervening years much has been written on the first two, which have the focus of a single decision context, but little on the third, though the closely related field of meta-analysis has developed considerably. With many developments in internet technology, particularly in relation to interactivity and communication, the textbook problem is gaining in importance since data and expert judgements can be made available over the web to be used by many different individuals to shape their own beliefs in many different contexts. Moreover, applications such as web-based decision support, e-participation and e-democracy are making algorithmic 'solutions' to the group decision problem attractive, despite many results showing we know that such solutions are, at best, rare and, at worst, illusory. In this paper I survey developments since my earlier paper and note some unresolved issues. Then I turn to how expert judgement might be used within web-based group decision support, as well as in e-participation and e-democracy contexts. The latter points to a growing importance of the textbook problem and suggests that Cooke's principles for scientific reporting of expert judgement studies may need enhancing for such studies to be used by a wider audience.

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Section: The Expert Problem: a Brief Survey Of Developmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Textbook Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Meta-analysis For Expert Judgementmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Aggregating expert judgement

French

2011

RACSAM

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“…To perform the FTA based on expert judgments, a group of experts based on Cooke et al (2008) indicators need to be assembled and selected (10). In some cases, the credibility of experts based on various criteria, such as title (professional position), age, experience level, and educational qualification, is widely different.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The sum-product method could be used to aggregate different fuzzy failure possibilities of a BE and it is expressed by the following Equation (5): (5): (10) …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Failure Occurrence Probability Assessment of Claus Furnace Package in Sulfur Recovery Unit Using Fault Tree Analysis Based on Conventional and Fuzzy-Based Approach

Bakbaki

Nabhani

Anvaripour

et al. 2018

Jundishapur J Health Sci

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Background: If shutdown scenario of burner of the sulfur recovery unit takes place, toxic release, fire, and explosion accident can easily occur. Therefore, it is essential to assess the basic causes of burner shutdown scenario. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) could be used to assess the occurrence probabilities of burner shutdown scenario and its basic causes/events. The failure occurrence probability of these Basic Events (BE) are often not available in lack of data and uncertain conditions. Objectives: This study was done to provide a comprehensive approach for analyzing and calculating BEs failure occurrence probability affecting the shutdown scenario, using combined fuzzy logic, expert judgment, and FTA. Methods: The study was carried out from June to December, 2016. In this study, a fuzzy-based approach based on expert judgment was proposed to calculate the occurrence probability of burner shutdown scenario in lack of data and uncertain conditions. The brainstorming and FMEA, and HAZOP study were first used to identify fault events of the fault tree. Then, based on these methods, the fault tree was constructed. Subsequently, the failure occurrence probabilities of BEs and shutdown scenario were calculated using the fuzzy-based approach and a conventional approach. Finally, the Fussell-Vesely importance analysis was used to rank the BEs in FTA. Results: Results showed that the occurrence probability of shutdown scenario was 4.76E-04 per year. Since the failure occurrence probabilities of some BEs were not available, using failure probability functions in the conventional approach cannot provide failure occurrence probabilities of those BEs. Therefore, the occurrence probability of shutdown scenario based on the conventional approach was not available. Based on the Fussell-Vesely importance measure analysis, it was determined that the blower failure while running, air pre-heater blockage, and shut-off valve fail close were 3 major causes of "burner shutdown scenario". Conclusions: The fuzzy-based approach could derive a failure occurrence probability of BEs based on expert subjective judgments using the failure possibility distributions (FPDs) in lack of data conditions. This study overcame the weaknesses of the conventional approach, to calculate BEs failure occurrence probabilities via fuzzy logic.

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Fuzzy probability and α‐cut based‐fault tree analysis approach to evaluate the reliability and safety of complex engineering systems

Purba

Tjahyani

Susila

et al. 2022

Quality & Reliability Eng

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Reliability and safety are very critical in complex engineering systems such as chemical and nuclear industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) has been widely applied to evaluate the reliability and safety of complex engineering systems. This approach assumes that systems always have exact component failure probabilities. However, this assumption is not always true in real‐world applications. To deal with this, a number of scholars have integrated fuzzy approach into FTA of engineering systems whose component exact probabilities cannot be collected. Furthermore, simple fuzzy arithmetic operations on membership function have also been proposed to quantify Boolean gates for propagating uncertainties from basic event fuzzy probabilities into the top event fuzzy probabilities. In this study, fuzzy arithmetic operations on α‐cuts, as opposed to simple fuzzy arithmetic operations, are proposed. The significance of the α‐cut is that each α‐cut can uniquely represents each fuzzy probability. In order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach, the reliability of the long‐term cooling system of the Westinghouse AP1000 to mitigate a large break loss of coolant accident is evaluated and the results are compared to the reliability of the same system quantified by conventional FTA published in qualified scientific journals. The results of the benchmarking confirm that the proposed approach can be practicably implemented to estimate the reliability and safety of complex engineering systems whose basic event reliability are characterized by fuzzy probabilities. To be applied in other complex engineering systems, safety analysts have to concern for some steps, which are particularly developed for a specific application, such as failure possibility distribution and its corresponding fuzzy probability distribution and the selection of a defuzzification technique.

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On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes

Cited by 61 publications

References 10 publications

Aggregating expert judgement

Aggregating expert judgement

Failure Occurrence Probability Assessment of Claus Furnace Package in Sulfur Recovery Unit Using Fault Tree Analysis Based on Conventional and Fuzzy-Based Approach

Fuzzy probability and α‐cut based‐fault tree analysis approach to evaluate the reliability and safety of complex engineering systems

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