On the Nature of the 1994 East Asian Summer Drought

Park, Chung-Kyu; Schubert, Siegfried D.

doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1056:otnote>2.0.co;2

Cited by 132 publications

(105 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Kim et al (2006b) reported that the hot period with enhanced mortality in Seoul was closely associated with the prolonged drought in the region. Park & Schubert (1997) also examined large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with the hot and dry weather, with respect to an anomalous evolution of the East Asian monsoon and unusually persistent stationary waves, extending from northern Europe over Eurasia during the summer of 1994.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: How exceptional was the 1994 heat wave?

Kyselý¹,

Kim²

2009

Clim. Res.

101

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The paper examines heat-related mortality in the population of South Korea between 1991 and 2005 and examines the extent to which the 1994 heat wave was unusual in terms of mortality impacts and recurrence probability. Most summer heat waves are found to be associated with enhanced mortality. However, the July to August 1994 heat wave was clearly exceptional, with the total death toll exceeding 3000 in South Korea. This value represents net excess mortality, as no displacement effect appeared after the hot summer season. Significantly elevated mortality occurred in all age groups, and an estimated 45% of victims were persons under 70 yr of age. The relative increase in mortality was larger in children up to 14 yr than in any other age group, and the mortality response was stronger in males than females, although males were less vulnerable during 'average' heat waves. The very large death toll ranks the 1994 heat wave over East Asia as among the worst weather-related disasters in this region. A climatological analysis reveals that the July to August 1994 heat wave might be considered an extremely rare event if temperature time series are assumed to be stationary. However, under a more realistic assumption of gradual warming related to global climate change, the recurrence probability of an event analogous to the 1994 heat wave is sharply rising for near-future time horizons. This emphasizes the need for an efficient heat-watchwarning system in this area, in order to reduce the human mortality impacts of heat waves. KEY WORDS: Heat wave · Human mortality · East Asia · Extreme events · Climate changeResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: How exceptional was the 1994 heat wave?

Kyselý¹,

Kim²

2009

Clim. Res.

101

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“…Lee et al (2001) suggested that the abnormally strong high-pressure system in the centre of the Eurasian continent was associated with the drought in 2001 and indicated that the long-lasting droughts in East Asia resulted from a large-scale circulation system rather than local factors (Park and Schubert, 1997). Although this implied that comprehensive research on the spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts over East Asia is necessary, the studies on droughts over East Asia have been very limited so far.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal comparisons of droughts over Korea with East Asia

Min

Kwon

Park

et al. 2003

Intl Journal of Climatology

146

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To investigate the spatial and temporal relationships of drought occurrence and intensity between Korea and East Asia, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), calculated from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) monthly precipitation data, was used from 1951 to 1996. It is found that the frequency of occurrence of droughts in Korea has significant time intervals of 2-3 and 5-8 years and has been increasing since the 1980s. Correlation and composite analyses showed that the occurrence of droughts over central eastern China, Manchuria, and the north coast of Japan was highly correlated with those in Korea. However, the time scales of occurrence of droughts over the three regions were different. Droughts in eastern China represented in-phase variations with those in Korea with a time interval of 5-8 years, whereas those in Manchuria occurred with a time interval of 15 years, and those in Japan had no coincident variations.To assess the feasibility of usage of proxy climate data in eastern China for the research of droughts in Korea during the pre-instrumental period, dry-wet indices in six regions of eastern China were correlated to the SPI values in Korea for the period of 1951-92 considering several time scales. Dry-wet indices of region V showed a larger correlation and the most similar trend to the droughts in Korea with a time scale of 5-11 years. This suggested an effective utilization of historical records and other proxy data in eastern China to understand extreme climatic events in Korea for the past 500 years.

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“…Using the latest version of the Japan Meteorology Agency global model, Kusunoki et al (1997) conducted an ensemble seasonal experiment to reproduce the abnormal summers of 1993 and 1994 and postulated that SST forcing contributes, to a large degree, to the occurrence of the cool summer of 1993 but not the hot summer of 1994. Park and Schubert (1997) postulated that the 1994 East Asian summer drought may have been influenced by an orographic forcing associated with zonal wind changes over the Tibetan Plateau. Yet, it still remains why the extreme cool and hot summers in the vicinity of Japan and the Korean peninsula tended to occur very frequently in recent years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Extraordinary Cool and Hot Summers in East Asia Simulated by an Ensemble Climate Experiment

Kawamura¹,

Sugi²,

Kayahara³

et al. 1998

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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An ensemble of three 40-year parallel simulations was performed using a T42 ALCM version of the Japan Meteorological Agency global model to answer the question why extraordinary cool and hot summers in East Asia, especially Japan and Korea, tend to occur very frequently in recent years from the late 1970s to the early 1990s. Three independent long-term integrations from January 1955 to December 1994 were forced by the same SST boundary condition observed on the global scale.Our AGCM simulations employing prescribed observed SSTs were successful in reproducing extratropical circulation anomalies that bring about the decadal-scale amplitude modulation of interannual variations of summer mean temperatures in the vicinity of Japan. During the period from the beginning of 1980s to the early 1990s, the interannual variability of the east-west gradient of summertime SST anomalies between the South China Sea and the tropical western Pacific east of the Philippines became appreciably large, was accompanied by anomalous cumulus convection around the Philippines, and its phases coincided quite well with those of model-simulated lower-tropospheric geopotential height variations near Japan. The anomalous convective heating substantially affected summertime lower tropospheric circulation anomalies in East Asia through the dynamic process of the excitation of PJ teleconnection pattern (Nitta, 1987). The anomalous SST forcing from the tropics is crucially responsible for the frequent occurrence of extreme cool and hot summers in Japan and Korea from the late 1970s to the early 1990s.The presence of strong east-west gradient of SST anomalies across the Philippines is primarily attributed to the significant coupling of weak (strong) South Asian summer monsoon and the warm (cold) episode of ENSO. The warm episodes that occurred during the period from the late 1970s to the early 1990s are appreciably different from a typical model of El Nino event exemplified by Rasmusson and Carpenter (1982) in terms of seasonal evolution. It is anticipated that both unusually persistent ENSO signals from the preceding winter until summer and the associated South Asian summer monsoon activity strongly regulate the formation of the east-west SST gradient near the Philippines in boreal summer.

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On the Nature of the 1994 East Asian Summer Drought

Cited by 132 publications

References 31 publications

Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: How exceptional was the 1994 heat wave?

Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: How exceptional was the 1994 heat wave?

Spatial and temporal comparisons of droughts over Korea with East Asia

Recent Extraordinary Cool and Hot Summers in East Asia Simulated by an Ensemble Climate Experiment

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