On The MSC Forecasters Forums and the Future Role of the Human Forecaster

Sills, David

doi:10.1175/2008bams2657.1

Cited by 24 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…High-impact weather, as defined by the Meteorological Service of Canada (Sills, 2009) "is weather that can result in significant impacts on safety, property and/or socioeconomic activity". More analytically, weather impact refers to adverse effects on society, such as transportation and network disruption, damages on infrastructure, buildings and vehicles, human fatalities and economic losses.…”

Section: Classification Of High-impact Weather Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A database of high-impact weather events in Greece: a descriptive impact analysis for the period 2001–2011

Papagiannaki

Lagouvardos

Kotroni

2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper introduces the development of a database of high-impact weather events that occurred in Greece since 2001. The selected events are related to the occurrence of floods, flash floods, hail, snow/frost, tornados, windstorms, heat waves and lightning with adverse consequences (excluding those related to agriculture). The database includes, among others, the geographical distribution of the recorded events, relevant meteorological data, a brief description of the induced impacts and references in the press. This paper further offers an extensive analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution of high-impact weather events for the period 2001–2011, taking into account the intensity of weather conditions and the consequent impact on the society. Analysis of the monthly distribution of high-impact weather events showed that they are more frequent during October and November. More than 80 people lost their lives, half of which due to flash floods. In what concerns the spatial distribution of high-impact weather events, among the 51 prefectures of the country, Attica, Thessaloniki, Elia and Halkidiki were the most frequently affected areas, mainly by flash floods. Significant was also the share of tornados in Elia, of windstorms in Attica, of lightning and hail events in Halkidiki and of snow/frost events in Thessaloniki.

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Section: Classification Of High-impact Weather Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A database of high-impact weather events in Greece: a descriptive impact analysis for the period 2001–2011

Papagiannaki

Lagouvardos

Kotroni

2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…High-impact weather (HIW) is weather that can result in significant impacts on safety, property and/or socioeconomic activity (Sills, 2009). Storm, typhoon, snowfall, fog and haze can often lead to flood, flash flood, debris flow and low visibility, and cause significant economic, social and environmental impacts and damage; thus, this kind of weather is called HIW Done et al, 2015;Shi et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have investigated the variations of some types of HIW in China; for example, Yu et al (2012) analysed the frequency variation of thunderstorms, hailstorms and gales in eastern China from 1971 to 2000. Fu et al (2013) examined the variability in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China during 1961-2009. Zhu et al (2014 investigated the spatiotemporal variation patterns of snowfall days in Qinghai province from 1962 to 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns and trends of high-impact weather in China during 1959–2014

Shi

Wen

Cui³

2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the frequencies of four types of high-impact weather (HIW), i.e. snowfall, thunderstorms, fog and hailstorms, were analysed in China during . Results indicate a significant decrease in the number of snowfall days, thunderstorm days and thunderstorm spells in all six regions of China, with regional decreasing rates of 0.1-3.4 days, 1.6-5.1 days and 0.23-0.77 times per decade respectively. The number of foggy days, hailstorm days and snowfall spells decreased at rates of 0.2-1.8 days, 0.1-0.7 days and 0.14-0.44 times per decade respectively in almost all regions and fog and hailstorm spells decreased at rates of 0.06-0.17 and 0.001-0.043 times per decade respectively in most regions of China. Spatially, there was more snowfall in northeastern China and western China, and more thunderstorms in southern China and southwestern China. The number of fog events was larger in some high mountain stations, eastern China and central China. Hailstorms were concentrated on QinghaiTibet Plateau. Over the past 56 years, snowfall days, thunderstorm days and thunderstorm spells decreased in most parts of China, and hailstorm days decreased in northeastern China, most parts of northern China and Tibet, southern Qinghai and western Sichuan. The spatial trends of foggy days, foggy spells, snowfall spells and hailstorm spells were not significant in most parts of China. With global warming, some types of HIW are likely to increase in their intensities, so more mitigation and adaptation strategies are still essential for local government and the public in China.

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“…The role of the human forecaster has been part of an active and ongoing discussion in the meteorological community (Doswell 2004;Stuart et al 2006;Sills 2009), although such conversations are nascent in hydrology. Although a ''silent majority'' of researchers assume that fully automated systems are better than manual ones (e.g., Parker and Fordham 1996), a few authors have forcefully contended that humans use intuition and experience to add value to the forecasts and believe that it would be a mistake to automate them out of the forecasting process (Demargne et al 2014).…”

Section: B the Important Role Of Human Forecastersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges of Operational River Forecasting

Pagano

Wood

Ramos³

et al. 2014

Journal of Hydrometeorology

143

116

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Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human-natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models. Moreover, operational predictions often integrate anecdotal information and unmodeled factors. Forecasting agencies face four key challenges: 1) making the most of available data, 2) making accurate predictions using models, 3) turning hydrometeorological forecasts into effective warnings, and 4) administering an operational service. Each challenge presents a variety of research opportunities, including the development of automated quality-control algorithms for the myriad of data used in operational streamflow forecasts, data assimilation, and ensemble forecasting techniques that allow for forecaster input, methods for using humangenerated weather forecasts quantitatively, and quantification of human interference in the hydrologic cycle. Furthermore, much can be done to improve the communication of probabilistic forecasts and to design a forecasting paradigm that effectively combines increasingly sophisticated forecasting technology with subjective forecaster expertise. These areas are described in detail to share a real-world perspective and focus for ongoing research endeavors.

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On The MSC Forecasters Forums and the Future Role of the Human Forecaster

Cited by 24 publications

References 15 publications

A database of high-impact weather events in Greece: a descriptive impact analysis for the period 2001–2011

A database of high-impact weather events in Greece: a descriptive impact analysis for the period 2001–2011

Patterns and trends of high-impact weather in China during 1959–2014

Challenges of Operational River Forecasting

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