On the long-term context of the 1997–2009 ‘Big Dry’ in South-Eastern Australia: insights from a 206-year multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction

Gergis, Joëlle; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Braganza, Karl; Karoly, David J.; Allen, Kathryn; Cullen, Louise E.; D’Arrigo, Rosanne; Goodwin, Ian; Grierson, Pauline F.; McGregor, Shayne

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0263-x

Cited by 113 publications

(151 citation statements)

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“…Comparing the spatial pattern of the reconstructed droughts to the gridded and NRM region instrumental (AWAP) spatial patterns, our reconstruction depicts the intensity of the two drought events during the instrumental period quite well. The gridded and regional representation of the Millennium Drought is indicated as the lowest on record for parts of the Southern Slopes and the Murray Basin and very much below average for the East Coast and the South and Southwestern Australia, in agreement with other studies (Cai et al, 2014;Gergis et al, 2011;Verdon-Kidd and Kiem, 2009). In the context of the full reconstruction period (1600-2014), the Millennium Drought remains the worst drought since 1749 in the Southern Slopes (observable too in Fig.…”

Section: Contextualising the Spatial Extent And Intensity Of Past Drosupporting

confidence: 90%

“…5f) and very much below average for East Coast, Murray Basin, and Southern and Southwestern Flatlands. In line with probability estimates for southeastern Australia by Gergis et al (2011) and B. I. , the 12-year period of the Millennium Drought is unprecedented for the Southern Slopes region. The rainfall reconstruction of the Murray Basin reveals that periods in the late 1700s and early 1800s and at the time of the Federation Drought are of similar or larger reductions in rainfall over a 12-year period (Fig.…”

Section: Contextualising the Spatial Extent And Intensity Of Past Drosupporting

confidence: 72%

“…There have been a number of palaeoclimate reconstructions of hydrological variables in Australia Cullen and Grierson, 2008;Gallant and Gergis, 2011;Gergis et al, 2011;Heinrich et al, 2009;Lough et al, 2015). Palmer et al (2015) recently introduced the Australia and New Zealand Drought Atlas (ANZDA), using the approach developed for Asia (Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) (Cook et al, 2010)), Europe (Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) (E. R. ) and North America by Cook et al (2010).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30-and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium

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Section: Contextualising the Spatial Extent And Intensity Of Past Drosupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Contextualising the Spatial Extent And Intensity Of Past Drosupporting

confidence: 72%

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confidence: 99%

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Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

et al. 2017

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“…Longer-term droughts, such as "The Big Dry" recently experienced in southeastern Australia (Gergis et al, 2011), are decadal phenomena and require longer-term climate records to place their magnitude into the wider context of natural climate variability. In Australia, detailed instrumental climate records extend only ~100 years (up to 150 years in some areas) (Nicholls et al, 2006), and beyond this, climate scientists typically rely on climate proxies, such as those derived from tree-ring measurements, to extend records further back in time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model for the formation of layered soda-straw stalactites

Paul¹,

Drysdale²,

Green³

et al. 2013

IJS

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Climate records based upon instrumental data such as rainfall measurements are usually only available for approximately the last 150 years at most. To fully investigate decadal-scale climate variation, however, these records must be extended by the use of climate proxies. Soda-straw stalactites (straws) are a previously under-utilised potential source of such data. In this contribution we investigate the structure and formation of straws and look at some issues that may affect the reliability of straw-based palaeoclimate records. We use laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) trace element analysis to document surface contamination features that have the potential to obscure annual trace element variations, and develop a method to reveal the underlying layering. We also use LA- ICP-MS to map the two-dimensional trace element distribution in straws. These maps reveal straw-layer geometry, in which layers are widest at the outside edge of the straw, narrowing and becoming almost parallel on the interior of the straw.Based upon these observations, we present a model for the formation of straws of this type, where rapid degassing of CO2 from the drip extending below the straw forms the wider outer layers. Summers are defined by increased layer widths and higher trace element contents relative to winter layers. In palaeoclimate studies, where such annual variations can be used to construct time-lines, we suggest that, ideally, the outside surface of the straw be analysed where the trace element content difference is greatest and layering is widest.The terminal phase of one straw (FC-02) shows decreasing layer widths and increased trace element contents. These features may also be representative of soda-straw responses to drought-induced decreases in percolation water

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“…As a result, changes in proxy variables often cannot be translated into changes in any single climatic variable without a loss of information. Finally, the statistical techniques used to generate multiproxy reconstructions can also contribute uncertainty, although this is at least quantifiable (Frank et al 2010;Gergis et al 2012;Wahl and Smerdon 2012).…”

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confidence: 99%

Paleoclimate Data–Model Comparison and the Role of Climate Forcings over the Past 1500 Years*

et al. 2013

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Ommen, T. D. (2013). Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years. Journal of Climate, 26 (18), 6915-6936. Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years AbstractThe past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data-model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data-model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches. ABSTRACTThe past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data-model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestim...

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On the long-term context of the 1997–2009 ‘Big Dry’ in South-Eastern Australia: insights from a 206-year multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction

Cited by 113 publications

References 48 publications

Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

A model for the formation of layered soda-straw stalactites

Paleoclimate Data–Model Comparison and the Role of Climate Forcings over the Past 1500 Years*

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