On the learning patterns and adaptive behavior of terrorist organizations

Jaspersen, Johannes G.; Montibeller, Gilberto

doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2019.09.011

Cited by 15 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Meanwhile, low-level collaboration could make a supply chain more susceptible to adversaries. This is supported by evidence-based studies suggesting that adversaries are purposeful agents engaging in adaptive decision processes (Arin et al, 2011;Jaspersen & Montibeller, 2020). The main research questions that we strive to address in this paper are:…”

Section: Production and Operations Managementmentioning

confidence: 72%

Securing containerized supply chain through public and private partnership

Nikoofal

Pourakbar

Gümüş

2023

Production and Operations Management

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Global trade is seafaring commerce; 90% of traded goods are carried by maritime transport, which has become vulnerable to security risks. This has led governments to initiate security programs serving tens of thousands of members worldwide. This paper studies the government's incentive design and the interaction between Customs inspection capacity and the incentives offered in security programs. Using the theory of incentives, we investigate the value of a partnership in improving the security of containerized supply chain. We developed a sequential game featuring the government, firms, and an adversary. The government selects the inspection capacity and incentives to foster the partnership, namely, an operational benefit in the form of a reduced inspection rate, and a security benefit obtained through reductions in the risks of adversarial infiltration. Firms subsequently decide on a collaboration level, followed by a strategic adversary's decision to infiltrate. Using the adversary's best response, we show that, in equilibrium, the government ranks all the firms and induces collaboration with only a subset of them. We demonstrate that, in equilibrium, while security incentives may benefit all participants, tailored operational incentives should be offered strictly to foster collaboration. The required condition to implement the inspection-free lane for members is also characterized. Our results also inform practice to help security policymakers understand the underlying interaction between Customs inspection capacity and incentive design in forging collaboration with private firms. In particular, as firms opting for collaboration experience lower inspection rates, this further reduces overall congestion, which, in turn, creates a positive externality for nonmember firms. Therefore, having an excess inspection capacity may result in shorter wait times that could dissuade firms from collaborating. K E Y W O R D Scontainer transport, incentive design, public-private partnership, risk and security management INTRODUCTIONTransporting over 90% of the world's cargo, maritime containers play a massive role in today's global supply chains. This huge volume creates enormous opportunities for illicit actors to infiltrate and abuse this mode of transport. Examples of bad actors include terrorists, smugglers, traffickers, and counterfeiters that pose health, security, and safety risks to people, firms, and infrastructures. With containers undergoing Customs inspections several times throughout their

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Section: Production and Operations Managementmentioning

confidence: 72%

Securing containerized supply chain through public and private partnership

Nikoofal

Pourakbar

Gümüş

2023

Production and Operations Management

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“…One question is how the results of the model would vary when considering different types of opponents that may present different risk preferences (Payyappalli et al., 2017). This brings the relevance of research on learning about opponents' behavior (e.g., see Bhashyam & Montibeller, 2016; Jaspersen & Montibeller, 2020). Another interesting possibility would be to explore how the sport mega‐event situation would influence the opponent's utility values' calculation regarding the multiple objectives that they may want to achieve.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As the defense actions are usually publicly promulgated, it can be represented by a Stackelberg game. However, instead of binary attack choices suggested by Kujawski (2016), terrorist organizations threatening sporting mega-events might choose among multiple targets and means of attack (Jaspersen & Montibeller, 2020). A key distinction for the defensive analysis of sporting mega-events is their finite duration.…”

Section: Allocating Defensive Resources Versus Terrorism Threatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deterrence against Terrorist Attacks in Sports‐Mega Events: A Method to Identify the Optimal Portfolio of Defensive Countermeasures

et al. 2021

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Sports mega‐events, such as the Olympic Games or the Super Bowl, are attractive targets for terrorist organizations, due to their visibility, size, and number of people involved. Two characteristics of sports mega‐events, however, make them distinctive in comparison with other well‐studied target protection problems in counterterrorism analysis (such as transportation hubs or infrastructure facilities). First, defensive measures are often publicly known. Second, their finite horizon means that deterrence against any attack must be prioritized. In this article we thus propose a method that identifies the best portfolio of defensive measures the defense may adopt, given a fixed budget, to minimize the chances of suffering a terrorist attack during a sports mega‐event. The method makes some relevant contributions to adversarial risk analysis: (i) it represents attackers that can choose among multiple attack scenarios and the no‐attack scenario; (ii) it measures the deterrence effect caused by synergic portfolios of defensive measures; and (iii) it proposes an algorithm that identifies dominated portfolios and may, thus, overcome the scalability problems inherent to this portfolio optimization. We apply this method to a real‐world defense problem, revisiting the defensive countermeasure planning for the 2016 Brazilian Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In the case study, we find a nonlinear relationship between budget expenditure and deterrence, as well as a decreasing marginal effectiveness use of resources after a given budget threshold, which would support a more efficient allocation of investments in the Games defense.

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“…More recently, Gao et al (2020) offer further evidence on the significance of sentiment on global stock market returns by extending, amongst others, Da et al's (2015) fears index into positive and negative sentiment terms. Google has also been used in several other fields beyond finance such as in the field of terrorism (e.g., Jaspersen andMontibeller, 2020) andeconomics (e.g., D'Amuri andMarcucci, 2017;Reyes, 2018). Based on the significance of sleep patterns in human decisions and the lack of sufficient empirical support on the significance of sleep in the field of finance, the relevant application of Google searches for sleep is justified for its potential merit.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel measure of sleep based on Google: the case for financial markets

Siganos

2020

The European Journal of Finance

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We address in this study the issue of how to proxy sleep and explore sleep's significance for financial markets. We employ daily Google search activity on sleepiness terms (e.g., sleep deprivation) to develop an index and find that a one-day lagged sleepiness index is related negatively to US stock market returns. When investors lack sleep, stock market returns are relatively low. This pattern could be explained by sleep deprivation causing an increased level of investor anxiety and risk aversion. We find that this relation is most pronounced on days with high uncertainty in the market. Sleep is negatively related to stock market returns even after controlling for sentiment. Overall, our results highlight the application of Google Trend in a new field showing that investors' sleep patterns influence their investment decisions.

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On the learning patterns and adaptive behavior of terrorist organizations

Cited by 15 publications

References 57 publications

Securing containerized supply chain through public and private partnership

Securing containerized supply chain through public and private partnership

Deterrence against Terrorist Attacks in Sports‐Mega Events: A Method to Identify the Optimal Portfolio of Defensive Countermeasures

A novel measure of sleep based on Google: the case for financial markets

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