On the Impact of Geospace Weather on the Occurrence of M7.8/M7.5 Earthquakes on 6 February 2023 (Turkey), Possibly Associated with the Geomagnetic Storm of 7 November 2022

Ouzounov, Dimitar; Khachikyan, Galina

doi:10.3390/geosciences14060159

Geosciences

2024

DOI: 10.3390/geosciences14060159

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On the Impact of Geospace Weather on the Occurrence of M7.8/M7.5 Earthquakes on 6 February 2023 (Turkey), Possibly Associated with the Geomagnetic Storm of 7 November 2022

Dimitar Ouzounov,

Galina Khachikyan

Abstract: A joint analysis of solar wind, geomagnetic field, and earthquake catalog data showed that before the catastrophic M = 7.8 and M = 7.5 Kahramanmaras earthquake sequence on 6 February 2023, a closed strong magnetic storm occurred on 7 November 2022, SYM/H = −117 nT. The storm started at 08:04 UT. At this time, the high-latitudinal part of Turkey’s longitudinal region of future epicenters was located under the polar cusp, where the solar wind plasma would directly access the Earth’s environment. The time delay b… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications

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Seismic variations before Eastern Anatolian catastrophic events in February 2023

Trifonova,

Oynakov,

Popova

et al. 2024

Nat Hazards

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The East Anatolian Fault System has been intensively studied over the years due to its potential to generate strong earthquakes and the high exposure of the economy and population in the region. This interest intensified even more after the strong earthquakes in the area at the beginning of February 2023, leading to a focused search for features and precursors that might suggest such an upcoming event. We analyze certain characteristics of seismicity within the East Anatolian Fault System before the earthquakes of February 6, 2023, with magnitudes Mw = 7.8 and Mw = 7.5, over the time period between 1983 and 2022. The earthquake catalog from January 1983 to September 2023, created by Turkish Bogazici University KOERI, is used. Processing of the data is performed by the ZMAP 7.1 software used in the MATLAB environment. Events with a magnitude greater than 2.5 are considered in four time periods: 1983–1992, 1993–2002, 2003–2012, and 2013–2022, totaling 29,346 events. The b-value of the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes (slope of the recurrence graph) is determined; the parameter β, indicative of the increase or decrease in the rate of anomalous seismicity, and parameter Z, associated with anomalous seismic quiescence, is evaluated. A significant decrease in the value of b (from 1.07 to 0.84) is observed when comparing the two periods (2013–2017/2018–2022), indicating accumulated stress in the Earth’s crust. Furthermore, the Z parameter analysis for the period July 2021 to December 2022 shows evidence of relative seismic quiet in the examined area compared to the period from January 2020 to the end of June 2021. Those results suggest that the spatiotemporal variations of the studied seismic parameters could serve as predictors of the two very strong seismic events in the southern part of the Eastern Anatolian region of Turkey.

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Seismic variations before Eastern Anatolian catastrophic events in February 2023

Trifonova,

Oynakov,

Popova

et al. 2024

Nat Hazards

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Study the Global Earthquake Patterns That Follow the St. Patrick’s Day Geomagnetic Storms of 2013 and 2015

Ouzounov,

Khachikyan

2024

Remote Sensing

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A response of global seismic activity to the geomagnetic storms of St. Patrick’s Day (March 17) in 2013 and 2015 is investigated. These two storms occurred during nearly identical storm sudden commencement times and similar solar flux levels. We have revealed a rather similar pattern of the most substantial earthquakes that have occurred since these storms. Two major crust continental earthquakes, in Iran (M = 7.7), 16 April 2013, and in Nepal (M = 7.8), 25 April 2015, have occurred with a time delay of ~30 and ~39 days after geomagnetic storm onsets in 2013 and 2015, respectively. After that, the great and major deep-focused earthquakes occurred beneath the Sea of Okhotsk (M = 8.3, 24 May 2013, Russia) and the Pacific Ocean (M = 7.8, 30 May 2015, Japan) with a time delay of ~68 and ~74 days, respectively. Geomagnetic storm onsets occurred at 06:04 UT in 2013 and 04:48 UT in 2015. At this time, the high latitudinal areas of the longitudinal regions, in which the mentioned earthquakes occurred in the future, were located under the polar cusp, where the solar wind plasma has direct access to the Earth’s environment. An analysis of the remaining ten earthquakes with M ≥ 7.5, which occurred around the globe in 2013 and 2015, proved the above findings that seismic activity may respond to geomagnetic storm onset with a time delay from some days to some months.

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The Preparation Phase of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Turkey) Major Earthquakes from a Multidisciplinary and Comparative Perspective

Cianchini,

Calcara,

De Santis

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing

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On 6 February 2023, Turkey experienced its most powerful earthquake in over 80 years, with a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.7. This was then followed by a second earthquake of Mw 7.6 just nine hours later. According to the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) models, such a significant seismic activity is expected to cause anomalies across various observables, from the Earth’s surface to the ionosphere. This multidisciplinary study investigates the preparatory phase of these two major earthquakes by identifying potential precursors across the lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere. Our comprehensive analysis successfully identified and collected various anomalies, revealing that their cumulative occurrence follows an accelerating trend, either exponential or power-law. Most anomalies appeared to progress from the lithosphere upward through the atmosphere to the ionosphere, suggesting a sequential chain of processes across these geospheres. Notably, some anomalies deviated from this overall trend, manifesting as oscillating variations. We propose that these anomalies support a two-way coupling model preceding major earthquakes, highlighting the potential role of fluid chemistry in facilitating these processes.

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On the Impact of Geospace Weather on the Occurrence of M7.8/M7.5 Earthquakes on 6 February 2023 (Turkey), Possibly Associated with the Geomagnetic Storm of 7 November 2022

Cited by 3 publications

References 36 publications

Seismic variations before Eastern Anatolian catastrophic events in February 2023

Seismic variations before Eastern Anatolian catastrophic events in February 2023

Study the Global Earthquake Patterns That Follow the St. Patrick’s Day Geomagnetic Storms of 2013 and 2015

The Preparation Phase of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Turkey) Major Earthquakes from a Multidisciplinary and Comparative Perspective

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