On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and Sun-Moon Tide Code Data

Abstract

In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal average value of the tide vector module. For analyzing the geomagnetic data behaviour we use diurnal standard deviation of geomagnetic vector components F (North, East, Down) for calculating the time variance GeomagSignal. The Sun storm influence is avoided by using data for daily A-indexes (published by NOAA). The precursor signal for forecasting the incoming regional seismic activity is a simple function of the present and previous day GeomagSignal and A-indexes values. The reliability of the geomagnetic "when, regional" precursor is demonstrated by using statistical analysis of day difference between the times of "predicted" and occurred earthquakes. The base of the analysis is a natural hypothesis that the "predicted" earthquake is the one whose surface energy density in the monitoring point is bigger than the energy densities of all occurred earthquakes in the same period and region. The reliability of the approach was tested using the INTERMAGNET stations data located in Bulgaria, Panagurishte, PAG (in the time of EU IRSES BlackSeaHazNet (2011-2014) project. The steps of program for solving the "when, where and how" earthquake prediction problem are shortly described. S. Cht. Mavrodiev et al. 103

Geoelectric studies in earthquake hazard assessment – the case of the Kozlodui nuclear power plant, Bulgaria

“…Savchyn and Vaskovets 2018 or Manevich et al 2021), integration of other geological and geophysical data is desirable to ensure maximum safety. Seismic events can be accompanied or preceded by a range of phenomena such as isotopes emissions (Sano et al, 2016;Zafrir et al 2020), pre-seismic electromagnetic disturbances (Mavrodiev et al 2015;Petraki et al 2015), and meteorological phenomena (Morozova 2012; Guangmeng and Jie 2013). A correlation has been observed between earthquakes and tides (Scholz et al 2019).…”