Abstract. Consider an absolutely simple abelian variety X over a number field K. We show that if the absolute endomorphism ring of X is commutative and satisfies certain parity conditions, then Xp is absolutely simple for almost all primes p. Conversely, if the absolute endomorphism ring of X is noncommutative, then Xp is reducible for p in a set of positive density.An absolutely simple abelian variety over a number field may or may not have absolutely simple reduction almost everywhere. On one hand, let K = Q(ζ 5 ), and let X be the Jacobian of the hyperelliptic curve with affine model Note that End K (X) ⊗ Q is the cyclotomic field Q(ζ 5 ), while End L (Y ) ⊗ Q is an indefinite quaternion algebra over Q. Murty and Patankar study the splitting behavior of abelian varieties over number fields, and advance the following conjecture:Conjecture. [20, Conj. 5.1] Let X/K be an absolutely simple abelian variety over a number field. The set of primes of K where X splits has positive density if and only if EndK(X) is noncommutative.(A similar question has been raised by Kowalski; see [14, Rem. 3.9].) The present paper proves this conjecture under certain parity and signature conditions on End(X).The first main result states that a member of a large class of abelian varieties with commutative endomorphism ring has absolutely simple reduction almost everywhere. (Throughout this paper, "almost everywhere" means for a set of primes of density one.) Theorem A. Let X/K be an absolutely simple abelian variety over a number field. Suppose that either (i) EndK(X) ⊗ Q ∼ = F a totally real field, and dim X/[F : Q] is odd; or