On the global trends and spread of the COVID-19 outbreak: preliminary assessment of the potential relation between location-specific temperature and UV index

Abstract

The novel coronavirus, since its first outbreak in December, has, up till now, affected approximately 114,542 people across 115 countries. Many international agencies are devoting efforts to enhance the understanding of the evolving COVID-19 outbreak on an international level, its influences, and preparedness. At present, COVID-19 appears to affect individuals through person-toperson means, like other commonly found cold or influenza viruses. It is widely known and acknowledged that viruses causing influenza peak during cold temperatures and gradually subside in the warmer temperature, owing to their seasonality. Thus, COVID-19, due to its regular flu-like symptoms, is also expected to show similar seasonality and subside as the global temperatures rise in the northern hemisphere with the onset of spring. Despite these speculations, however, the systematic analysis in the global perspective of the relation between COVID-19 spread and meteorological parameters is unavailable. Here, by analyzing the region-and city-specific affected global data and corresponding meteorological parameters, we show that there is an optimum range of temperature and UV index strongly affecting the spread and survival of the virus, whereas precipitation, relative humidity, cloud cover, etc. have no effect on the virus. Unavailability of pharmaceutical interventions would require greater preparedness and alert for the effective control of COVID-19. Under these conditions, the information provided here could be very helpful for the global community struggling to fight this global crisis. It is, however, important to note that the information presented here clearly lacks any physiological evidences, which may merit further investigation. Thus, any attempt for management, implementation, and evaluation strategies responding to the crisis arising due to the COVID-19 outbreak must not consider the evaluation presented here as the foremost factor.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Is Africa Different?

“…Some studies have suggested that temperatures in excess of 27 °C, ultra-violet rays associated with sunlight and humidity all tend to have negative effects on the survival of the virus. 18 We could not demonstrate this for African countries. However, the rise in numbers in the southern part of the continent currently experiencing their winter season and the relatively lower numbers and mortality in countries closer to the equator with higher temperatures and higher intensity of UV-light might be in keeping with these speculations.…”

“…16 This source has also been used in previous studies on temperature and coronavirus cases. 17 , 18 The Human Development Index (HDI) data was retrieved from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) 2019 Human development report. Flights data was accessed from the International Civil Aviation Organization, which publishes civil aviation statistics on air transport.…”

Altitude conditions seem to determine the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil: a significance relationship with cases and deaths

“…However, it is necessary to consider comprehensive biophysical assessments of altitude, humidity, UV radiation in the maintenance and transmission of SARS-CoV-2. [9,10]. Recently studies have been published about temperature and UV index, and that heating, and UV irradiation can eliminate the viral infectivity [9,10].…”

“…[9,10]. Recently studies have been published about temperature and UV index, and that heating, and UV irradiation can eliminate the viral infectivity [9,10]. These ndings could help to understand the relationship of COVID-19 cases in different cities Brazil due to altitude.…”

Why does the COVID-19 outbreak in Mexico seem to be slower? Some hypotheses for testing

“…Our goal was to inquiry why the reported number of infections in Mexico is lower than expected based on population size and the aforementioned factors. We focused our discussion in a series of potential environmental factors that could be related with the lower rate of infections observed especially in Mexico City, as the solar UV irradiation (Sagripanti and Lyte 2007;Gunthe et al 2020), the ventilation of houses and public transport, and Mexican vaccination scheme. It is important to highlight a possible gap in epidemic statistics based in the low number of COVID-19 tests in relation to population size in Mexico (Theodoros et al 2020).…”