On the Fundamental Laws of Earthquake Physics

Guglielmi, A. V.; Зотов, О. Д.; Zavyalov, A. D.; Klain, B. I.

doi:10.1134/s0742046322020026

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…We also use a value for Bath's law Δm B = 1.1, a typical value for earthquake sequences determined from many previous works, which a number of recent studies show in the range 1.0-1.2 (Guglielmi et al, 2022;Holliday et al, 2008;Shcherbakov et al, 2004Shcherbakov et al, , 2005. We do not consider either the b-value or the Δm B value to be "free parameters", since their definition and method of evaluation are well-known.…”

Section: Initial Model Set-up and Event Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

Rundle,

Baughman,

Zhang

2024

Earth and Space Science

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Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori‐Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non‐Poisson” power‐law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de‐clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

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Section: Initial Model Set-up and Event Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

Rundle,

Baughman,

Zhang

2024

Earth and Space Science

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“…Представление о собственном времени очага возникло при изучении афтершоков сильного землетрясения [Guglielmi, 2016[Guglielmi, , 2017. Идея оказалась удачной и была использована в ряде публикаций (см., например [Zavyalov et al, 2020;Guglielmi et al, , 2022). История вопроса такова.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…Он формулируется с использованием лишь трех символов (n, t, σ) вместо пяти (n, t, k, c, p), которые используются в выражении (3). Более того, уравнение эволюции (2) допускает естественные обобщения [Zavyalov et al, 2020;Guglielmi et al, 2022;Guglielmi, Klain, 2020], отнюдь не очевидные при определении закона Омори в формуле Хирано-Утсу. Решение уравнения (2) можно записать в виде, наиболее близком к формуле Омори (1):…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…Здесь авторы следуют традиции, обозначая собственное время буквой τ, чтобы отличить его от универсального времени t. Отличие τ от t, наблюдавшееся на опыте, объясняется нестационарностью массива горных пород в очаге после образования магистрального разрыва. К настоящему времени накоплен успешный опыт использования τ наряду с мировым временем t при исследовании афтершоков [Zavyalov et al, 2020;Guglielmi et al, 2019Guglielmi et al, , 2022. Следует особо подчеркнуть, что ранее идея о собственном времени использовалась неявно и только в сравнительно узкой области, относящейся к физике афтершоков.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

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On Proper Time of the Source of a Strong Earthquake

Guglielmi

Зотов

Zavyalov

et al. 2023

Geodin. tektonofiz.

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The physics of earthquakes was contriubuted to by the concept of proper time of the source of a strong earthquake, which is different from universal (calendar) time. The earlier idea of proper time was implicit and has been considered only in relation to the physics of aftershocks. The present paper extends the applicability of the concept of proper time, proposes a possible way of its measuring, and provides an example to illustrate the procedure for sequential ordering of earthquakes by proper time. The object of this study is a global activity of strong (M≥7) earthquakes. We consider the sequence of earthquakes as a Poisson-type random process. Comparatively weak earthquakes are used as the "underground clock", the tick of which marks the proper time. The Poisson distribution is compared with the distributions for two sequences of strong earthquakes. One of the sequences is ordered by universal time, and another - by proper time. The studies indicate the distribution of events ordered by proper time is closer to the Poisson distribution than that of events ordered by universal time. We attribute this to the non-stationarity of the geological medium, which is an immanent property of the Earth's lithosphere.

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Båth’s Law Derived from Gutenberg-Richter’s Law: a Simple Deduction with Implications for Earthquake Sequence Analysis

Wu,

Liu

2024

J. Volcanolog. Seismol.

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On the Fundamental Laws of Earthquake Physics

Cited by 4 publications

References 16 publications

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

On Proper Time of the Source of a Strong Earthquake

Båth’s Law Derived from Gutenberg-Richter’s Law: a Simple Deduction with Implications for Earthquake Sequence Analysis

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