On the Feasibility of Mid‐winter Predictions

Abstract

VER the last five years at Exeter predictions have been made of the severity of UK 0 mid-winter seasons from an examination of October and November upper air analyses

Winter Prediction

“…TT has been suggested by Davies, Muir and Linnard (1986) that a polar diagram method revea1ing the mean orientation of the circumpolar vortex at 100mb over a November period is a good guide to the probable occurrence of a subsequent generally cold (or otherwise) winter period (December-February) over the UK. Despite the difficulty of selecting the main axis on a small number of days of a given November period (as indicated in the 1986 paper), the method gave successful predictions of the subsequent winters following the ten November periods 1979November periods -1988.…”