On the estimation of the effect of labour participation on fertility

Abstract

In this paper we consider the estimation of the causal effect of female labour market status (participation and employment) on fertility. We focus on the sensitivity of the estimated effect to (i) the assumptions about the exogeneity of labour market status; and (ii) the time interval between the measurement of fertility and employment status. Using Spanish quarterly data, we estimate a switching probit model that accounts for the joint determination of both variables. In order to obtain a behavioural effect of the former on the latter, we look at the timing of conception instead of the timing of birth, and present alternative sets of estimates depending on the accuracy with which conception is measured (yearly or quarterly). Our results show a positive although non-significan effect of participation and employment on the probability of having the firs child, once the sample of women who conceive in the same quarter (or one quarter later) in which labour market status is measured and the endogeneity between both variables is accounted for. We fin that annual data tend to over-estimate the negative effect of employment or participation on the probability of having a child, but the main biases appear when looking at the effect of participation.We are grateful to Adrian Kalwij, Daniel Miles and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on this work. All remaining errors are our own.

Gender gaps in Spain: policies and outcomes over the last three decades

“…Gutiérrez-Domenech (2008) finds that the increase in the incidence of unemployment among men tends to delay marriage and then fertility. Alba et al (2009) estimate the causal effect of female labor market status on fertility using Spanish data. They find a positive although non-significant effect of participation and employment on the probability of having the first child, once the endogeneity is accounted…”

Female employment and fertility trajectories in Spain: an Optimal Matching Analysis

“…Most economic studies of female labour market participation, partnership and fertility have confirmed the importance of human capital, although they vary in the significance they attach to it. Examples for Spain are Bover and Arellano (1995), Ahn andMira (2001), Álvarez-Llorente (2002), Gutiérrez-Domènech (2002, 2005a, 2005b, 2008), De la Rica and Ferrero (2003, Alba and Álvarez-Llorente (2004) and Alba et al (2009). All of them share event history analysis as their methodological approach, while Álvarez-Llorente (2002), Alba and Álvarez-Llorente (2004) and Gutiérrez-Domènech (2005a, 2005b estimate simultaneous events, such as first birth and cohabitation.…”

Targeting fertility and female participation through the income tax

“…More recently, the life-cycle approach has focused on using the timing and spacing of births over the lifetime span (Hotz and Miller, 1988;Francesconi, 2002;Attanasio et al, 2008). For the specific case of Spain, De la Rica and Ferrero (2003), Gutierrez-Domenech (2008) and Alba et al (2009) amounts were also increased. The first and second child generated a 1200 euros deduction each, while the third and later children generated deductions of 1800 euros.…”