On the Emergence of Human Influence on Surface Air Temperature Changes Over India

Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.

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Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

Arulalan

AchutaRao

Sagar

2023

Climatic Change

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The 2022 mega heatwave in South Asia in the observed and projected future climate

Aadhar,

Mishra

2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The heatwave in 2022 in South Asia disrupted the lives of millions of people and posed challenges to human health, energy, water, and food security. However, mega heatwaves' causes, impacts, and occurrence (like in 2022) remain largely unrecognized. Here, we analyzed the 2022 heatwave, its mechanisms, and future likelihood using observational datasets and climate model simulations. In the last few years, the frequency and duration of heatwaves have significantly increased in South Asia. South Asia faced five continuous heatwave spells that lasted about 35 days during late February and April 2022, affecting a large part of the region. The year 2022 heatwave was unprecedented that caused a deficit in soil moisture and crop yield. Moreover, our results show that the excessive radiative heating of arid and semi-arid regions resulted in a high geopotential height and low pressure in South Asia during the 2022 mega heatwave. The climate model simulations show that such mega heatwaves are projected to become more frequent under the warmer world, and their time of emergence could be as early as the 2030s under the highest emission scenario. Earlier occurrences of mega heatwaves in the future will pose considerable adaptation challenges for food and water security in the region.

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Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts

Zachariah,

Arulalan,

AchutaRao

et al. 2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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In March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including the breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in the region, resulting in devastating consequences for public health and agriculture. Using event attribution methods, we analyse the role of human-induced climate change in altering the chances of such an event. To capture the extent of the impacts, we choose March–April average of daily maximum temperature over the most affected region in India and Pakistan as the variable. In observations, the 2022 event has a return period of ∼1-in-100 years. For each of the climate models, we then calculate the change in probability and intensity of a 1-in-100 year event between the actual and counterfactual worlds for quantifying the role of climate change. We estimate that human-caused climate change made this heatwave about 1 °C hotter and 30 times more likely in the current, 2022 climate, as compared to the 1.2 °C cooler, pre-industrial climate. Under a future global warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, heatwaves like this are expected to become even more common (2–20 times more likely) and hotter (by 0 °C–1.5 °C) compared to now. Stronger and frequent heat waves in the future will impact vulnerable groups as conditions in some regions exceed limits for human survivability. Therefore, mitigation is essential for avoiding loss of lives and livelihood. Heat Action Plans have proved effective to help reduce heat-related mortality in both countries.

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On the Emergence of Human Influence on Surface Air Temperature Changes Over India

Cited by 3 publications

References 37 publications

Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

The 2022 mega heatwave in South Asia in the observed and projected future climate

Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts

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