On the difference between real-time and research simulations with CTIPe

Fernandez-Gomez, Isabel; Fedrizzi, M.; Codrescu, M.; Borries, Claudia; Fillion, Martin; Fuller‐Rowell, T. J.

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2019.02.028

Cited by 16 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The high-latitude electrodynamic forcing is specified according to the statistical parameterisations of Weimer (2005). The capability of CTIPe to reproduce SED anomalies during the main phase of the 20 November 2003 superstorm has been demonstrated in Fernandez-Gomez et al (2019) for the European sector. In this study, the extended CTIPe run has been used to analyse anomalies in the North American sector, with the results discussed in Sect.…”

Section: Simulations Of the Stormmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The key physical mechanisms contributing to the stormtime plasma uplifts include (a) equatorward thermospheric neutral winds driven by the storm-time Joule dissipation (Anderson, 1976;Rishbeth, 1998) and (b) a vertical component of the electric E × B plasma convection expanded equatorward to mid-latitudes (Deng and Ridley, 2006;Heelis et al, 2009). Also, a horizontal plasma transport due to the poleward expansion of the equatorial plasma anomaly (Tsurutani et al, 2004) or due to the westward plasma drift caused by subauroral polarisation streams (Foster et al, 2007) has been invoked to explain the SED anomaly. However, the importance of the last two mechanisms, which involve substantial horizontal plasma transport over mid-Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Polar tongue of ionisation during geomagnetic superstorm

2021

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Abstract. During the main phase of geomagnetic storms, large positive ionospheric plasma density anomalies arise at middle and polar latitudes. A prominent example is the tongue of ionisation (TOI), which extends poleward from the dayside storm-enhanced density (SED) anomaly, often crossing the polar cap and streaming with the plasma convection flow into the nightside ionosphere. A fragmentation of the TOI anomaly contributes to the formation of polar plasma patches partially responsible for the scintillations of satellite positioning signals at high latitudes. To investigate this intense plasma anomaly, numerical simulations of plasma and neutral dynamics during the geomagnetic superstorm of 20 November 2003 are performed using the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) coupled with the statistical parameterisation of high-latitude plasma convection. The simulation results reproduce the TOI features consistently with observations of total electron content and with the results of ionospheric tomography, published previously by the authors. It is demonstrated that the fast plasma uplift, due to the electric plasma convection expanded to subauroral mid-latitudes, serves as a primary feeding mechanism for the TOI anomaly, while a complex interplay between electrodynamic and neutral wind transports is shown to contribute to the formation of a mid-latitude SED anomaly. This contrasts with published simulations of relatively smaller geomagnetic storms, where the impact of neutral dynamics on the TOI formation appears more pronounced. It is suggested that better representation of the high-latitude plasma convection during superstorms is needed. The results are discussed in the context of space weather modelling.

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Section: Simulations Of the Stormmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Polar tongue of ionisation during geomagnetic superstorm

2021

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“…The model uses atmospheric forcing given by a simplified version of the Whole Atmosphere Model (Akmaev et al, 2008) and high-latitude electrodynamic forcing specified according to the statistical parameterisations of Weimer (2005). The capability of CTIPe to reproduce SED anomalies during the main phase of 20-Nov-2003 superstorm has been demonstrated in Fernandez-Gomez et al (2019) for the European sector. In this study, the extended CTIPe run has been used to analyse anomalies in the North American sector, with the results discussed in Section 5.4.…”

Section: Simulations Of the Stormmentioning

confidence: 99%

Polar tongue of ionisation during geomagnetic superstorm

Pokhotelov¹,

Fernández-Gómez²,

Borries³

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. During the main phase of geomagnetic storms large positive ionospheric plasma density anomalies arise at middle and polar latitudes. A prominent example is the tongue of ionisation (TOI), which extends poleward from the dayside storm-enhanced density (SED) anomaly, often crossing the polar cap and streaming with the plasma convection flow into the nightside ionosphere. A fragmentation of the TOI anomaly contributes to the formation of polar plasma patches partially responsible for the scintillations of satellite positioning signals at high latitudes. To investigate this intense plasma anomaly, numerical simulations of plasma and neutral dynamics during the geomagnetic superstorm of 20 November 2003 are performed using the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) coupled with the statistical parameterisation of high-latitude plasma convection. The simulation results reproduce the TOI features consistently with observations of total electron content and with the results of ionospheric tomography, published previously by the authors. It is demonstrated that the fast plasma uplift, due to the electric plasma convection expanded to subauroral mid-latitudes, serves as a primary feeding mechanism for the TOI anomaly, while a complex interplay between electrodynamic and neutral wind transports is shown to contribute to the formation of mid-latitude SED anomaly. It is suggested that better representation of the high-latitude plasma convection is needed. The results are discussed in the context of space weather modelling.

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“…gov/produ cts/ctipe -total -elect ron-conte nt-forec ast). Fernandez-Gomez et al (2019) reported the difference between the real-time and research simulations using the CTIPe model. By necessity, they used different solar wind inputs to the real-time and research simulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…How much accuracy could be achieved in such a situation is an important question. In addition to the magnetospheric potential driven by the solar wind investigated by Fernandez-Gomez et al (2019), the upper atmosphere is also affected by inputs from the low-altitude region. Here, we mainly focus on the effect of the low-altitude data limitation on the prediction accuracy of the upper atmosphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical forecast of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere using GAIA

Tao

Jin

Miyoshi

et al. 2020

Earth Planets Space

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Upper atmospheric conditions are crucial for the safe operation of spacecraft orbiting near Earth and for communication and positioning systems using radio signals. To understand and predict the upper atmospheric conditions, which include complex variations affected by both low altitude and upper surrounding environments, we have developed a quasi-real-time and forecast simulations using a physical global model, the Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA). The GAIA simulation system provides a global distribution of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) with background atmospheric and electric distributions including a few-days prediction. The prediction accuracy for the detection of significant ionospheric storms decreases with increasing lead time, i.e., the duration of the model simulation which is not constrained by realistic input parameters. Similar characteristic variations associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are reproduced with the full or limited input of meteorological data at least the prior 3 days. This is a first step toward the usage of GAIA for space weather forecasting.

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On the difference between real-time and research simulations with CTIPe

Cited by 16 publications

References 38 publications

Polar tongue of ionisation during geomagnetic superstorm

Polar tongue of ionisation during geomagnetic superstorm

Polar tongue of ionisation during geomagnetic superstorm

Numerical forecast of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere using GAIA

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