On the contribution of foreign-born populations to overall population change in Europe: Methodological insights and contemporary evidence for 31 European countries

Abstract

BACKGROUNDWithin the context of significant migration flows, persisting low fertility settings, and population ageing in more developed areas, increased focus has been placed on the impact of migration on population change in receiving countries. OBJECTIVEThis paper examines the contributions of migrants and natives to population change in 31 European countries for the 2014-2019 period. METHODSBased on a standardisation method, we provide evidence derived from births, deaths, and net migration for the size and diversity of the contributions to overall population change of the two population groups. RESULTSThe results show that the foreign-born population has been the driving force behind overall population change in Europe, as this population has attenuated overall population decline; turned the expected population decline into population growth; or, less frequently, accelerated population growth. Additionally, the differences between countries in the indirect effect of the foreign-born population on population change have been driven more by the differences in the population age structure of migrants than by the timing and level of fertility or by the level of mortality among migrants. CONCLUSIONSOur findings suggest that the contribution of the foreign-born population to overall population change in Europe has been pronounced and goes far beyond the contribution of net migration, the commonly used indicator for measuring the effect of the foreignborn population on population change.

Neighbourhood effects and determinants of population changes in Italy: A spatial perspective

“…The ageing of rural populations and rapid declines in population size in rural areas are frequently caused by the selective migration of particular age groups (Burholt and Dobbs, 2012;Walford and Kurek, 2008). In a recent contribution on migration, Bagavos (2022) found that the presence of a foreign-born population attenuated population decline trends in eastern and southern European countries, and that it was a driver of population growth in a very limited number of countries. More importantly, Bagavos showed that in western European and Nordic countries, the presence of a foreign-born population turned the expected process of population decline into population growth.…”

How Much Does Migration Affect Labor Supply in Europe? Methodological Insights and Contemporary Evidence from the European Union and Selected European Countries

“…Apart from demographic transformation, there are at least two additional features of labor supply which merit further attention. The first relies on shifts in the propensity to participate in the labor market, in particular the increase in female labor force participation rates and in the labor market participation of persons of higher ages (55–64 years) in more developed countries (Benton and Patuzzi 2018). The longstanding upward trend in women's labor force participation rate is closely related to changes in their role in society (Cully 2011; Spielvogel and Meghnagi 2018b).…”

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