The Dutch Maeslant barrier, a movable surge barrier in the mouth of river Rhine, closes when due to a surge in the North Sea the water level in the river in Rotterdam would exceed 3 m above mean sea level. An important aspect of the failure probability is that the barrier might get damaged during a closure and that, within the time needed for repair, as a second critical storm-surge occurs. With an estimated closure frequency of once in 10 years, the question arises how often the barrier has to be closed twice within a month. 5 Instead of tackling this problem by the application of statistical models on the (short) observational series, we solve the problem by combining the surge model WAQUA/DCSMv5 with the output of all seasonal forecasts of the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) in the period 1981-2015, whose combination cumulates in a pseudoobservational series of more than 6000 years. It is found that two closures occur on average once in 150 years within a month, and once in 330 years within a week. 10 Sea level rise has a significant impact on the recurrence time, both of single and double closures. The recurrence time of single closures reduplicate with every 18 cm mean sea level rise (assuming that other influences remain unchanged), and double closure reduplicate with every 10 cm rise. This implies a 3-14 times larger probability of a double closure for a 15-40 cm sea level rise in 2050 (according to the KNMI climate scenarios) than that is currently dealt with. Keywords. Maeslant-barrier 15 surge tide sea level rise failure probability ECMWF 20 seasonal forecasts 1 Ocean Sci. Discuss.,