On the Characterisation of the World Real Interest Rate

Abstract

This paper characterises the world real interest rate as a common trend in real interest rates in Germany, Japan, and the United States even if there is scepticism in the existence of the world real interest. In theoretical terms, real interest parity is based on the presumed validity of uncovered interest parity and purchasing power parity, but the empirical evidence of these parity conditions is not strong and thus the presence of the world real interest rate. The significance of this paper is, therefore, to visualise the current level of international economic integration by characterising the approximate world real interest rate as a single common trend, taking full advantage of the fact that real interest rates in three large open economies have been moving together sharing a common component even if their levels are distinctively different. This single common trend has desirable properties as the world real interest rate. First, it is a parsimonious and monotonically increasing function of the real interest rates in three large open economies that can be world price or interest rate maker, in contrast with small open economies. Second, it is moving together with national real interest rates one for one. Hence, the deviations from the world rate are temporary because common trend represents the common driving force of national rates over the long run period. Third, it can explain as high a proportion as possible of the variances of national rates. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2002.

Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect

“…A theoretically very appealing interpretation of this latter dependence is that it reflects in part the presence of a world real interest rate (see Lee, 2002). To illustrate this, consider the following 199 decomposition of the ex ante real rate:…”