On the capability of RegCM to capture extremes in long term regional climate simulation – comparison with the observations for Czech Republic

Halenka, Tomáš; Kalvová, Jarošlava; Chládová, Zuzana; Demeterová, A.; Zemánková, Kateřina; Belda, Michal

doi:10.1007/s00704-005-0205-5

Cited by 42 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The tendency of most RCMs to simulate more precipitation and increase wet biases in some regions and seasons under higher resolutions was also reported by other authors (e.g. Halenka et al 2006, Bergant et al 2007, Jaeger et al 2008, Suklitsch et al 2011. However, some systematic errors in models can stem from insufficient density of reference observed data, resulting in an inability to capture fine-scale climate signals (Kyselý & Plavcová 2010, Rauscher et al 2010, and can also be artificially amplified by the lack of a rain gauge correction in the observations, especially in the winter (Adam & Lettenmaier 2003, Yang et al 2005.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 65%

“…In the region of central and eastern Europe (CEE) a similar effort, with emphasis on climate change impacts and assessment of vulnerability, has already been carried out within 2 recent projects of the European Commission's 6th Framework Programme (FP6): CECILIA (Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assess ment, www.cecilia-eu.org) and CLAVIER (Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe, www.clavier-eu.org). In both projects, one of the key objectives was to deliver information on climate change in the region of CEE by means of RCM simulations at a very high resolution of 10 km (see Halenka 2008 andJacob et al 2008 for more details).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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CECILIA regional climate simulations for the present climate: validation and inter-comparison

Skalák¹,

Déqué²,

Belda³

et al. 2014

Clim. Res.

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We investigated high-resolution simulations of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by ERA-40 reanalyses over areas of selected European countries (Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania) for the period 1961−1990. RCMs were run at a spatial resolution of 10 km in the framework of the CECILIA project, and their outputs were compared with the E-OBS dataset of gridded observations and RCM simulations at coarser 25 km resolution from the ENSEMBLES project to identify a possible gain from the CECILIA experiments over ENSEM-BLES. Cold biases of air temperature and wet biases of precipitation dominate in the CECILIA simulations. Spatial variability and distribution of the air temperature field are well captured. The precipitation field, relative to observations, often shows inadequately small spatial variability and lowered correlations but is nevertheless comparable to the ENSEMBLES model. Inter-annual variability (IAV) of air temperature is captured differently among seasons but mostly improved in CECILIA compared with ENSEMBLES. Precipitation IAV shows a similar or worse score. The detected weaknesses found within the validation of the CECILIA RCMs are attributed to the resolution dependence of the set of physical parameterizations in the models and the choice of integration domain. The gain obtained by using a high resolution over a small domain (as in CECILIA) relative to a lower resolution (25 km) over a larger domain (as in ENSEMBLES) is clear for air temperature but limited for precipitation.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

CECILIA regional climate simulations for the present climate: validation and inter-comparison

Skalák¹,

Déqué²,

Belda³

et al. 2014

Clim. Res.

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“…The driving meteorology, which greatly influences the hour-to-hour evolution of the NO 2 concentrations, is a result of a 10-year climate model run. The climate model does not need to accurately reproduce the hour-to-hour, day-to-day weather pattern; however it has to reconstruct the climate close to reality in terms of averaged quantities and capability to capture extremes (Halenka et al, 2006). Further, the emission decomposition into hourly values is based on numerous assumptions about the typical temporal evolution of a certain activity sector and the actual emissions may differ for a particular hour.…”

Section: The Validation Of the Modeling Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

2016

Self Cite

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Abstract. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of urban emission from Central European cities on the present-day regional air quality, the regional climate model RegCM4.2 was coupled with the chemistry transport model CAMx, including two-way interactions. A series of simulations was carried out for the 2001-2010 period either with all urban emissions included (base case) or without considering urban emissions. Further, the sensitivity of ozone production to urban emissions was examined by performing reduction experiments with −20 % emission perturbation of NO x and/or non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC).The modeling system's air quality related outputs were evaluated using AirBase, and EMEP surface measurements showed reasonable reproduction of the monthly variation for ozone (O 3 ), but the annual cycle of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) is more biased. In terms of hourly correlations, values achieved for ozone and NO 2 are 0.5-0.8 and 0.4-0.6, but SO 2 is poorly or not correlated at all with measurements (r around 0.2-0.5). The modeled fine particulates (PM 2.5 ) are usually underestimated, especially in winter, mainly due to underestimation of nitrates and carbonaceous aerosols.European air quality measures were chosen as metrics describing the cities emission impact on regional air pollution. Due to urban emissions, significant ozone titration occurs over cities while over rural areas remote from cities, ozone production is modeled, mainly in terms of number of exceedances and accumulated exceedances over the threshold of 40 ppbv. Urban NO x , SO 2 and PM 2.5 emissions also significantly contribute to concentrations in the cities themselves (up to 50-70 % for NO x and SO 2 , and up to 60 % for PM 2.5 ), but the contribution is large over rural areas as well (10-20 %). Although air pollution over cities is largely determined by the local urban emissions, considerable (often a few tens of %) fraction of the concentration is attributable to other sources from rural areas and minor cities. For the case of Prague (Czech Republic capital), it is further shown that the inter-urban interference between large cities does not play an important role which means that the impact on a chosen city of emissions from all other large cities is very small. At last, it is shown that to achieve significant ozone reduction over cities in central Europe, the emission control strategies have to focus on the reduction of NMVOC, as reducing NO x (due to suppressed titration) often leads to increased O 3 . The influence over rural areas is however always in favor of improved air quality, i.e. both NO x and/or NMVOC reduction ends up in decreased ozone pollution, mainly in terms of exceedances.

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“…Because persistence of weather events may lead to extremes such as flood, drought and so on, successive events of various durations can reveal significant structure of the frequency and intensity of extremes (Halenka et al 2006). The four categories of spells used in this study are calculated as a number of consecutive days as follows.…”

Section: Changes In Daily Propertiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Change in Mean and Extreme Climate over Korea from a Double-Nested Regional Climate Model Simulation

Kim

Kwon

et al. 2007

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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We present an analysis of a simulated climate projection covering the period 1971-2080 over the Korean Peninsula with a regional climate model (RegCM3) using a one-way double-nested system. The mother and nested domain cover the East Asian region at 60 km grid spacing and the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing, respectively. The mean climate state as well as the frequency and intensity of daily extreme events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales, with a focus on surface air temperature and precipitation. Our analysis is primarily centered on the comparison of two 30-year climate periods between 2021-2050 and 2051-2080, in order to assess climatic changes at different time periods in response to anthropogenic forcings under the IPCC B2 emission scenario.Regarding the interdecadal variation of projected temperature and precipitation over the whole integration period, we find that the temperature change gradually increases by 3.2 K for the 2070s, with a persistently increasing trend. The projected precipitation in the future shows generally greater amounts than in the reference run despite significant interdecadal variation. A substantial increase (decrease) of hot (frost) spells is projected along with increasing of maximum and minimum temperature. Wet spells of long periods tend to be more frequent, accompanying the increase of precipitation amounts. The temperature changes are statistically significant at the 90% confidence level in all seasons and regions, indicating robustness of the projected change while the precipitation changes show low statistical confidence, especially summer season, due to the large natural variability. Based on the spatial distribution, although the general pattern between the mother and nested domain simulations shows similarity, more detailed structure over Korea is found in the nested domain simulation. By comparison of the change between 2021-2050 and 2051-2080 periods, the climate change signal of both temperature and precipitation becomes more pronounced in the late 21 st century as the greenhouse gas concentration is increased.

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On the capability of RegCM to capture extremes in long term regional climate simulation – comparison with the observations for Czech Republic

Cited by 42 publications

References 24 publications

CECILIA regional climate simulations for the present climate: validation and inter-comparison

CECILIA regional climate simulations for the present climate: validation and inter-comparison

On the long-term impact of emissions from central European cities on regional air quality

Projected Change in Mean and Extreme Climate over Korea from a Double-Nested Regional Climate Model Simulation

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