On the application of rainfall projections from a convection-permitting climate model to lumped catchment models

Ascott, Matthew; Christelis, Vasileios; Lapworth, Dan; Macdonald, David; Tindimugaya, Callist; Iragena, A.; Finney, D. J.; Fitzpatrick, Rory G. J.; Marsham, John H.; Rowell, David P.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129097

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…Consequently, they can better capture storm dynamics and how they affect hydrological flows. This is verified in recent research where such projections are adopted to implement distributed hydrological models for studies in the UK [61], in temperate and alpine climates [62], and in south-west Africa [63], as well as semiarid areas [64]. The potentiality of this methodology is also explored in a soil erosion assessment over western Africa (Tanzania) [65] with the use of the RUSLE model (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) [66].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 64%

“…Globally, such models can hardly capture the spatial variability of the processes having a more localized, sub-catchment scale extent. The introduction of CPM projections with horizontal grid spacing <4 km is a major step forward allowing to better model erosion dynamics within a catchment as confirmed in recent works on surface hydrology simulations [61][62][63].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

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Soil Erosion in a British Watershed under Climate Change as Predicted Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections

Ciampalini,

Kendon,

Constantine

et al. 2023

Geosciences

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Climate change can lead to significant environmental and societal impacts; for example, through increases in the amount and intensity of rainfall with the associated possibility of flooding. Twenty-first-century climate change simulations for Great Britain reveal an increase in heavy precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss by rising the likelihood of surface runoff. Here, hourly high-resolution rainfall projections from a 1.5 km (‘convection-permitting’) regional climate model are used to simulate the soil erosion response for two periods of the century (1996–2009 and a 13-year future period at ~2100) in the “Rother” catchment, West Sussex, England. Modeling soil erosion with EROSION 3D, we found a general increase in sediment production (off-site erosion) for the end of the century of about 43.2%, with a catchment-average increase from 0.176 to 0.252 t ha−1 y−1 and large differences between areas with diverse land use. These results highlight the effectiveness of using high-resolution rainfall projections to better account for spatial variability in the assessment of long-term soil erosion than other current methods.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 64%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Soil Erosion in a British Watershed under Climate Change as Predicted Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections

Ciampalini,

Kendon,

Constantine

et al. 2023

Geosciences

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“…In a recent study, Kay (2022) used an ensemble of CPMs to feed a gridded hydrological model, showing a better performance and higher future flow changes in CPMs compared to RCMs. Using a modeling chain driven by a CPM over a tropical area in Africa, Ascott et al (2023) indicate no significant trend in floods in future projections. Even though the aforementioned studies have pioneered the use of CPMs with hydrological models, they are limited to only one hydrological model, ignoring uncertainty induced by hydrological models discrepancies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?

Poncet,

Lucas-Picher,

Tramblay

et al. 2024

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Floods are the primary natural hazard in the French Mediterranean area, causing damages and fatalities every year. These floods are triggered by heavy precipitation events (HPEs) characterized by limited temporal and spatial extents. A new generation of regional climate models at the kilometer scale have been developed, allowing an explicit representation of deep convection and improved simulations of local-scale phenomena such as HPEs. Convection-permitting regional climate models (CPMs) have been scarcely used in hydrological impact studies, and future projections of Mediterranean floods remain uncertain with regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, we use the CNRM-AROME CPM (2.5 km) and its driving CNRM-ALADIN RCM (12 km) at the hourly timescale to simulate floods over the Gardon d'Anduze catchment located in the French Mediterranean region. Climate simulations are bias-corrected with the CDF-t method. Two hydrological models, a lumped and conceptual model (GR5H) and a process-based distributed model (CREST), forced with historical and future climate simulations from the CPM and from the RCM, have been used. The CPM model confirms its ability to better reproduce extreme hourly rainfall compared to the RCM. This added value is propagated on flood simulation with a better reproduction of flood peaks. Future projections are consistent between the hydrological models but differ between the two climate models. Using the CNRM-ALADIN RCM, the magnitude of all floods is projected to increase. With the CNRM-AROME CPM, a threshold effect is found: the magnitude of the largest floods is expected to intensify, while the magnitude of the less severe floods is expected to decrease. In addition, different flood event characteristics indicate that floods are expected to become flashier in a warmer climate, with shorter lag time between rainfall and runoff peak and a smaller contribution of base flow, regardless of the model. This study is a first step for impact studies driven by CPMs over the Mediterranean.

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“…In a recent study, Kay (2022) used an ensemble of CPMs to feed a gridded hydrological model, showing a better performance and higher future flow changes of CPMs compared to RCMs. Using a modeling chain driven by a CPM over a tropical area in Africa, Ascott et al (2023) In this study, we would like to assess the added value of a CPM regarding the evolution of floods over a Mediterranean catchment prone to intense floods. For this, we perform an analysis of simulated floods magnitudes and characteristics under a historical scenario and under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?

Poncet

Lucas‐Picher

Tramblay

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Floods are the primary natural hazard in the French Mediterranean area causing damages and fatalities every year. These floods are triggered by heavy precipitation events (HPEs) characterized by limited temporal and spatial extents. For a decade, a new generation of regional climate models at the kilometer scale have been developed, allowing an explicit representation of deep convection and improved simulations of local-scale phenomena such as HPEs. Convection-Permitting regional climate Models (CPMs) have been scarcely used in hydrological impact studies, and future projections of Mediterranean floods remain uncertain with Regional Climate Models (RCMs). In this paper, we use the CNRM-AROME CPM (2.5 km) and its driving CNRM-ALADIN RCM (12 km) at the hourly timescale to simulate floods over the Gardon d’Anduze catchment located in the French Mediterranean region. Climate simulations are bias-corrected with the CDF-t method. Two hydrological models, a lumped and conceptual model (GR5H), and a processed-based and distributed model (CREST), successively forced with historical and future climate simulations from the CPM and from the RCM, have been used. The CPM model confirms its ability to reproduce extreme hourly rainfall compared to the RCM. This added value is propagated on flood simulation with a better reproduction of flood peaks. Future projections are consistent between the hydrological models, but differ between the two forcing climate models. With the CNRM-ALADIN RCM, all floods are projected to increase, whereas a threshold effect is found for simulations driven by the CNRM-AROME CPM, where the magnitude of the largest floods is expected to increase while the moderate floods are expected to decrease. In addition, different flood event characteristics indicate that floods are expected to become flashier in a warmer climate, regardless of the model. This study is a first step for impact studies driven by CPMs over the Mediterranean.

show abstract

On the application of rainfall projections from a convection-permitting climate model to lumped catchment models

Cited by 7 publications

References 77 publications

Soil Erosion in a British Watershed under Climate Change as Predicted Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections

Soil Erosion in a British Watershed under Climate Change as Predicted Using Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Projections

Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?

Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?

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