On the Abruptness of Bølling–Allerød Warming

Su, Zhan; Ingersoll, Andrew P.; He, Feng

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0675.1

Cited by 17 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…The model has limited capability to correctly represent advection of tracers (SST) near its grid scale, since it has to parametrize subgrid eddy flux by the grid‐scale viscosity/diffusion coefficient. At scales sufficiently larger than the model resolution the model will represent SST better, as at those scales the grid‐scale viscosity/diffusion no longer impact on the advection of tracers (e.g., Su et al, , , ). Figure indeed shows that the RMSE skill improves between the model resolution scale and the 750‐km scale by 5–55%, depending on the model resolution.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

SST Dynamics at Different Scales: Evaluating the Oceanographic Model Resolution Skill to Represent SST Processes in the Southern Ocean

et al. 2019

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In this study we demonstrate the many strengths of scale analysis: we use it to evaluate the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean model skill in representing sea surface temperature (SST) in the Southern Ocean by comparing three model resolutions: 1/12°, 1/4°, and 1°. We show that while 4–5 times resolution scale is sufficient for each model resolution to reproduce the magnitude of satellite Earth Observation (EO) SST spatial variability to within ±10%, the representation of ∼100‐km SST variability patterns is substantially (e.g., ∼50% at 750 km) improved by increasing model resolution from 1° to 1/12°. We also analyzed the dominant scales of the SST model input drivers (short‐wave radiation, air‐sea heat fluxes, wind stress components, wind stress curl, and bathymetry) variability with the purpose of determining the optimal SST model input driver resolution. The SST magnitude of variability is shown to scale with two power law regimes separated by a scaling break at ∼200‐km scale. The analysis of the spatial and temporal scales of dominant SST driver impact helps to interpret this scaling break as a separation between two different dynamical regimes: the (relatively) fast SST dynamics below ∼200 km governed by eddies, fronts, Ekman upwelling, and air‐sea heat exchange, while above ∼200 km the SST variability is dominated by long‐term (seasonal and supraseasonal) modes and the SST geography.

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Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

SST Dynamics at Different Scales: Evaluating the Oceanographic Model Resolution Skill to Represent SST Processes in the Southern Ocean

et al. 2019

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“…Recent work by Thiagarajan et al () proposed a mechanism for the initiation of the Bølling involving the buildup of heat at intermediate depths in the North Atlantic and then catastrophic release via thermobaric convection (Adkins et al, ; Su et al, ). They propose that warm intermediate waters, measured in the North Atlantic, originated from the Southern Ocean.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Intermediate Waters Across the Late Glacial Revealed by Paired Radiocarbon and Clumped Isotope Temperature Records

Hines

Eiler

Southon

et al. 2019

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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Paired radiocarbon and clumped isotope temperature records from U/Th-dated Desmophyllum dianthus corals in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean provide unique information about the history of intermediate waters (∼1,500-1,700 m) across the late glacial and deglaciation (∼35-10 ka). These measurements allow for the construction of radiocarbon-temperature crossplots, which help to identify water mass endmembers at different times across the deglaciation. Radiocarbon and temperature values from the late glacial fall outside the range of modern ocean data from near the sample collection sites. In the North Atlantic, radiocarbon values tend to be much older than the modern, while in the Southern Ocean, they are more often younger than the modern. Reconstructed temperatures vary around respective modern ocean values; however, warm waters are observed at the Last Glacial Maximum and across the deglaciation in the north and south. We interpret our data in the context of the modern hydrography of the Western North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, and we draw upon direct comparisons between sediment core-derived reconstructions of ocean circulation from the South Indo-Pacific and our deep-sea coral data from the Southern Ocean. Our North Atlantic data support accepted patterns of reduced North Atlantic Deep Water formation during Heinrich Stadials 1 and 2. In the Southern Ocean, deep-sea coral populations respond to changes in ocean structure that are also reflected in a depth profile of 13 C data from New Zealand, and data indicate that there was less influence of Pacific Deep Water between 1,500 and 1,700 m south of Tasmania across much of the deglaciation.

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“…Although the focus is often on meltwater as the driver of AMOC reduction and Northern Hemisphere cooling, the onset of D-O warming is extremely abrupt and typically exceeds the rate of cooling into stadial events. These rapid fluctuations suggest that AMOC recovery can occur on even faster timescales than a shutdown 18,28 .…”

Section: Box 1 | Terminologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

et al. 2021

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The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate-ecological-social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

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On the Abruptness of Bølling–Allerød Warming

Cited by 17 publications

References 73 publications

SST Dynamics at Different Scales: Evaluating the Oceanographic Model Resolution Skill to Represent SST Processes in the Southern Ocean

SST Dynamics at Different Scales: Evaluating the Oceanographic Model Resolution Skill to Represent SST Processes in the Southern Ocean

Dynamic Intermediate Waters Across the Late Glacial Revealed by Paired Radiocarbon and Clumped Isotope Temperature Records

Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

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