On Temperature and its Relation to Mortality: An Illustration of the Application of the Numerical Method to the Discovery of Truth

Guy, William A.

doi:10.2307/2339225

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…In Europe, famines and great epidemics that had been reoccurring events in the centuries before became less frequent during the 18th and 19th century [ 4 , 5 ]. The end of the so-called little ice age in Europe [ 2 ] coincided with the slow beginning of the industrialization—urbanization, technological development and societal re-organization during the 18th and 19th century [ 6 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of Seasonal Climate Variability and Age-Specific Mortality in Northern Sweden before the Onset of Industrialization

Rocklöv

Edvinsson

Arnqvist

et al. 2014

IJERPH

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Background and aims: Little is known about health impacts of climate in pre-industrial societies. We used historical data to investigate the association of temperature and precipitation with total and age-specific mortality in Skellefteå, northern Sweden, between 1749 and 1859. Methods: We retrieved digitized aggregated population data of the Skellefteå parish, and monthly temperature and precipitation measures. A generalized linear model was established for year to year variability in deaths by annual and seasonal average temperature and cumulative precipitation using a negative binomial function, accounting for long-term trends in population size. The final full model included temperature and precipitation of all four seasons simultaneously. Relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for total, sex- and age-specific mortality. Results: In the full model, only autumn precipitation proved statistically significant (RR 1.02; CI 1.00–1.03, per 1cm increase of autumn precipitation), while winter temperature (RR 0.98; CI 0.95–1.00, per 1 °C increase in temperature) and spring precipitation (RR 0.98; CI 0.97–1.00 per 1 cm increase in precipitation) approached significance. Similar effects were observed for men and women. The impact of climate variability on mortality was strongest in children aged 3–9, and partly also in older children. Infants, on the other hand, appeared to be less affected by unfavourable climate conditions. Conclusions: In this pre-industrial rural region in northern Sweden, higher levels of rain during the autumn increased the annual number of deaths. Harvest quality might be one critical factor in the causal pathway, affecting nutritional status and susceptibility to infectious diseases. Autumn rain probably also contributed to the spread of air-borne diseases in crowded living conditions. Children beyond infancy appeared most vulnerable to climate impacts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of Seasonal Climate Variability and Age-Specific Mortality in Northern Sweden before the Onset of Industrialization

Rocklöv

Edvinsson

Arnqvist

et al. 2014

IJERPH

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show abstract

“…Año 2022. luego de las enfermedades epidémicas (zymotic diseases) 1 . Esta variabilidad es atribuida a las bajas temperaturas registradas en los inviernos del período (Guy, 1858(Guy, , 1881. En On Temperature and it´s Relation to Mortality, William Guy expresa: "Se observa que en esta serie de hechos no existe una sola excepción a la regla que el invierno resulta más fatal para la vida que el verano, a pesar que este exceso de mortalidad invernal oscila en un rango desde cifras tan bajas como 52 por ciento hasta cifras tan altas como 59 por ciento" 2 (Guy, 1881).…”

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Exceso de mortalidad invernal en Argentina en el período 1997-2017 estudio de series temporales

Almeida

2023

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Desde 1950 en adelante, países europeos han estudiado la mortalidad invernal a través del Índice del Exceso de Muertes Invernales (IEMI). Solamente Nueva Zelanda lo ha aplicado en el hemisferio sur. Nuestro objetivo fue cuantificar y describir la magnitud, tendencia y distribución del exceso de mortalidad invernal en Argentina entre 1997 y 2017 aplicando este índice, inédito en el país. Realizamos un estudio agregado, observacional, longitudinal, de series temporales a nivel país, regiones y provincias de arquitectura híbrida ya que espacializamos el vector temporal para descripciones y contraste de hipótesis. Realizamos descomposición clásica de series temporales de las defunciones mensuales y sus tasas.Aplicamos medias móviles para las series temporales del IEMI. Utilizamos métodos no paramétricos para comparaciones. En el período estudiado se produjeron 407.950 muertes invernales en exceso a nivel país, con un promedio anual de 16.667, correspondiéndose con un IEMI de 20,4% (IC95% = 18,6% ; 22,2%). La serie temporal del IEMI presentó tendencia gradualmente descendente, con períodos de meseta hasta 2013 en que se tornó ascendente. El IEMI fue significativamente mayor en mujeres que en varones. Concluímos que las mujeres, los menores de 5 años, los mayores de 60 años y aquellos que residían en la región Centro y Cuyo expresaron una experiencia de mortalidad invernal que podría asociarse a una mayor vulnerabilidad. La gran variabilidad en el exceso de mortalidad invernal al interior de Argentina, interanual y entre colectivos humanos, nos interpeló a considerar que sería pasible de ser reducido, al menos a sus valores promedio, o mínimos que paradójicamente fueron alcanzados en las regiones más frías del país. Interpretamos los diferenciales identificados, como expresión de desigualdades determinadas por modos de vida y contextos de los que nuestro estudio no pudo dar cuenta por su diseño.

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Ambient temperature predicts sex ratios and male longevity

Catalano

Bruckner

Smith

2008

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

114

105

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The theory that natural selection has conserved mechanisms by which women subjected to environmental stressors abort frail male fetuses implies that climate change may affect sex ratio at birth and male longevity. Using time series methods, we find that cold ambient temperatures during gestation predict lower secondary sex ratios and longer life span of males in annual birth cohorts composed of Danes, Finns, Norwegians, and Swedes born between 1878 (earliest year with complete life tables) and 1914 (last birth cohort for which male life span can be estimated). We conclude that ambient temperature affects the characteristics of human populations by influencing who survives gestation, a heretofore unrecognized effect of climate on humanity.climate change ͉ global warming ͉ natural selection ͉ Scandinavia ͉ time series

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On Temperature and its Relation to Mortality: An Illustration of the Application of the Numerical Method to the Discovery of Truth

Cited by 5 publications

References 0 publications

Association of Seasonal Climate Variability and Age-Specific Mortality in Northern Sweden before the Onset of Industrialization

Association of Seasonal Climate Variability and Age-Specific Mortality in Northern Sweden before the Onset of Industrialization

Exceso de mortalidad invernal en Argentina en el período 1997-2017 estudio de series temporales

Ambient temperature predicts sex ratios and male longevity

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