On Some Properties of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Fingerprints

Spada, Giorgio; Melini, Daniele

doi:10.3390/w11091844

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…Based on the work quoted above, the rate of long-term RSL change in Venice due to the melting of the Late Pleistocene ice sheets does not appear to be tightly constrained (Tosi et al, 2013). Further uncertainties arise from the effects of the melting of the Würm Alpine ice sheet, whose chronology remains uncertain regarding several aspects (Spada et al, 2009). Nonetheless, the long-term rate of Venetian RSL change due to GIA can be assessed in the range between −0.2 and +0.5 mm/year based on the published works cited above.…”

Section: Glacial Isostatic Adjustmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)

Zanchettin

Bruni

Raicich

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantification, understanding and prediction of the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the observational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, an average change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortunately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude comparable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 ranges between 32 and 62 cm for the RCP2.6 scenario and between 58 and 110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. A plausible but unlikely high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 180 cm of relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of human-induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they have the potential to produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, exacerbating the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level changes.

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Section: Glacial Isostatic Adjustmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)

Zanchettin

Bruni

Raicich

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

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“…GIA describes the response of the Earth System to the growth and decay of continental ice sheets as a consequence of past, present or future climate variations (for recent reviews, see: Spada, 2017;Whitehouse, 2018). GIA stems from interactions between the cryosphere, the solid Earth and the oceans, involving sluggish deformations of the crust driven by surface mass redistribution, mutual gravitational attraction and rotational variations (Melini and Spada, 2019;Spada and Melini, 2019). The GIA-induced RSL variations are characterized by a strong regional imprint reflecting such interactions.…”

Section: Glacial Isostatic Adjustmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends

Zanchettin

Bruni

Raicich

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The City of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ~150 years, this was characterized by a secular linear trend of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in understanding, estimating and predicting the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with focus on the most recent publications. The current best estimate of historical sea-level rise in Venice, based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects, is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year (period from 1872 to 2019). Subsidence thus contributed to about half of the observed relative sea-level rise over the same period. A higher – yet more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed during recent decades, estimated from tide-gauge data to be about 2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year in the period 1993–2019 for the climatic component alone. An unresolved issue is the contrast between the observational capacity of tide gauges and satellite altimetry, with the latter tool not covering the Venice Lagoon. Water mass exchanges through the Gibraltar Strait currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Subsidence and regional atmospheric and oceanic circulation mechanisms can deviate Venetian relative sea-level trends from the global mean values for several decades. Regional processes will likely continue to determine significant interannual and interdecadal variability of Venetian sea level with magnitude comparable to that observed in the past, as well as non-negligible differential trends. Our estimate of the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate change is presently estimated between 11 and 110 centimetres. An improbable yet possible high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 170 centimetres of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of natural and human induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, further increasing the hazard posed by climatically-induced sea-level changes.

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“…As C3S sea level grids are not corrected from the global isostatic adjustment (GIA), a correction is applied a posteriori. It is derived from an ensemble mean of regional GIA corrections computed with the ICE-5G model and with various viscosity profiles (27 profiles) used in Prandi et al (2021) (Spada and Melini, 2019). The average GIA value over oceans is -0.28 mm yr -1 close to the generally accepted value of -0.3 mm yr -1 (e.g.…”

Section: Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 73%

Monitoring the ocean heat content change and the Earth energy imbalance from space altimetry and space gravimetry

Marti

Blazquez

Meyssignac

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The Earth energy imbalance (EEI) at the top of the atmosphere is responsible for the accumulation of heat in the climate system. Monitoring the EEI is therefore necessary to better understand the Earth’s warming climate. Measuring the EEI is challenging as it is a globally integrated variable whose variations are small (0.5–1 W m−2) compared to the amount of energy entering and leaving the climate system (~ 340 W m−2). Since the ocean absorbs more than 90 % of the excess energy stored by the Earth system, estimating the ocean heat content (OHC) provides an accurate proxy of the EEI. This study provides a space geodetic estimation of the OHC changes at global and regional scales based on the combination of space altimetry and space gravimetry measurements. From this estimate, the global variations in the EEI are derived with realistic estimates of its uncertainty. The mean EEI value is estimated at +0.74 ± 0.22 W m−2 (90 % confidence level) between August 2002 and August 2016. Comparisons against independent estimates based on Argo data and on CERES measurements show good agreement within the error bars of the global mean and the time variations in EEI. Further improvements are needed to reduce uncertainties and to improve the time series especially at interannual and smaller time scales. The space geodetic OHC-EEI product is freely available at https://doi.org/10.24400/527896/a01-2020.003.

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On Some Properties of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Fingerprints

Cited by 11 publications

References 74 publications

Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)

Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)

Review article: Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends

Monitoring the ocean heat content change and the Earth energy imbalance from space altimetry and space gravimetry

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