On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain

Aven, Terje; Renn, Ortwin

doi:10.1080/13669870802488883

Cited by 585 publications

(370 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

331

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…There is research on decision-making approaches that account for uncertainty (Lempert and Groves 2010;Means et al 2010), which is useful for making decisions in light of complexity and changing conditions (Moore et al 2012;NRC 2004;Renn 2008). Additional research is needed, however, on the role and efficacy of inclusive and iterative risk management approaches in climate change adaptation, including how various risk perceptions influence behavior in these decision-making processes (Aven and Renn 2009;Aven et al 2011;Jones and Preston 2011;Kahan et al 2011;NRC 2010a;Renn 2011;Renn et al 2011;van Aalst et al 2008). …”

Section: Research On Decision-making In Light Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed

Bierbaum

Smith

Lee

et al. 2012

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

368

202

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We reviewed existing and planned adaptation activities of federal, tribal, state, and local governments and the private sector in the United States (U.S.) to understand what types of adaptation activities are underway across different sectors and scales throughout the country. Primary sources of review included material officially submitted for consideration in the upcoming 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment and supplemental peer-reviewed and grey literature. Although substantial adaptation planning is occurring in various sectors, levels of government, and the private sector, few measures have been implemented and even fewer have been evaluated. Most adaptation actions to date appear to be incremental changes, not the transformational changes that may be needed in certain cases to adapt to significant changes in climate. While there appear to be no one-size-fits-all adaptations, there Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2013) are similarities in approaches across scales and sectors, including mainstreaming climate considerations into existing policies and plans, and pursuing no-and low-regrets strategies. Despite the positive momentum in recent years, barriers to implementation still impede action in all sectors and across scales. The most significant barriers include lack of funding, policy and institutional constraints, and difficulty in anticipating climate change given the current state of information on change. However, the practice of adaptation can advance through learning by doing, stakeholder engagements (including "listening sessions"), and sharing of best practices. Efforts to advance adaptation across the U.S. and globally will necessitate the reduction or elimination of barriers, the enhancement of information and best practice sharing mechanisms, and the creation of comprehensive adaptation evaluation metrics.

show abstract

Section: Research On Decision-making In Light Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed

Bierbaum

Smith

Lee

et al. 2012

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

368

202

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In general, 'risk' refers to the uncertainty about and the severity of the consequences (or outcomes) of an activity with respect to something that humans value (Aven and Renn, 2009). In the context of materials' substitution, risk can be seen as the probabilities and extent of environmental consequences when substituting one material with another.…”

Section: Environmental Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a dynamic assessment of raw materials criticality: Linking agent-based demand — With material flow supply modelling approaches

Knoeri

Wäger

Stamp

et al. 2013

Science of The Total Environment

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:Emerging technologies such as information and communication-, photovoltaic-or battery technologies are expected to increase significantly the demand for scarce metals in the near future. The recently developed methods to evaluate the criticality of mineral raw materials typically provide a 'snapshot' of the criticality of a certain material at one point in time by using static indicators both for supply risk and for the impacts of supply restrictions. While allowing for insights into the mechanisms behind the criticality of raw materials, these methods cannot account for dynamic changes in products and/or activities over time. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework intended to overcome these limitations by including the dynamic interactions between different possible demand and supply configurations. The framework integrates an agent-based behaviour model, where demand emerges from individual agent decisions and interaction, into a dynamic material flow model, representing the materials' stocks and flows. Within the framework, the environmental implications of substitution decisions are evaluated by applying life-cycle assessment methodology. The approach makes a first step towards a dynamic criticality assessment and will enhance the understanding of industrial substitution decisions and environmental implications related to critical metals. We discuss the potential and limitation of such an approach in contrast to state-of-the-art methods and how it might lead to criticality assessments tailored to the specific circumstances of single industrial sectors or individual companies.

show abstract

“…In this respect, although there exist several definitions of risk (e.g., see Aven &Renn, 2009 andAven, 2012 for reviews and comparisons), in maintenance engineering risk has always been viewed as a combination of two failure attributes: likelihood (i.e., description of the uncertainty with which the failure is expected to occur) and severity (i.e., a quantification of the impact of failure on dimensions such as environment, safety, production) (Kaplan, 1981).…”

Section: Methodology Snapshotmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identification of the most critical pipes in the presence of imprecise information

Laakso¹,

Compare²,

Mancuso³

et al. 2015

Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

IntrABSTRACT: Risk-Based Maintenance (RBM) helps focus maintenance efforts on the more risky items of the asset under study. In particular, RBM can be applied to maintain large infrastructure networks whose preventive maintenance programmes are a major determinant of the operating costs of the network and its competitiveness. In this paper, we propose a novel risk-based methodology to select the most risky items of the network, based on qualitative expert statements about risk-related attributes and weights which characterize the relative importance of these risks. The methodology is illustrated with a real case study on a large sewerage network in Espoo, Finland.

show abstract

On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain

Cited by 585 publications

References 15 publications

A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed

A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed

Towards a dynamic assessment of raw materials criticality: Linking agent-based demand — With material flow supply modelling approaches

Identification of the most critical pipes in the presence of imprecise information

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About