On prediction of re-entry time of an upper stage from GTO

Mutyalarao, M.; Sharma, Ram Krishan

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2011.01.028

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…The near linear variation of mean apogee altitude has shown the reentry time more accurately from the TLEs considered. Hence, it is proven once again that the method based on near linear variation of mean apogee altitude utilized in [6] is providing reasonably good estimates of the orbital lifetime of the rocket body. The genetic algorithm parameters are given in Table 5.…”

Section: Reentry Time Prediction For Gslv-d5mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper, a method to perform the lifetime estimation of an upper stage in GTO is presented as an optimal estimation problem [5, 6]. Using this method we predict the reentry time of the cryogenic stage of the Indian geosynchronous satellite launch vehicle GSLV-D5, employing the orbital data of the rocket body (R/B) in the form of two-line element sets (TLEs), which were downloaded from the Space Track Organization website (http://www.spacetrack.org/) from February 11, 2014, to April 6, 2014.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using this method we predict the reentry time of the cryogenic stage of the Indian geosynchronous satellite launch vehicle GSLV-D5, employing the orbital data of the rocket body (R/B) in the form of two-line element sets (TLEs), which were downloaded from the Space Track Organization website (http://www.spacetrack.org/) from February 11, 2014, to April 6, 2014. Based on near linear variation of the mean apogee altitude, four intervals were identified for the reentry study [6]. The response surface method with genetic algorithm (GA) is effectively used to determine the optimal initial estimates of eccentricity and ballistic coefficient using the TLEs of each time interval [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Lifetime Estimation of the Upper Stage of GSAT-14 in Geostationary Transfer Orbit

David

Sharma

2014

International Scholarly Research Notices

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The combination of atmospheric drag and lunar and solar perturbations in addition to Earth's oblateness influences the orbital lifetime of an upper stage in geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). These high eccentric orbits undergo fluctuations in both perturbations and velocity and are very sensitive to the initial conditions. The main objective of this paper is to predict the reentry time of the upper stage of the Indian geosynchronous satellite launch vehicle, GSLV-D5, which inserted the satellite GSAT-14 into a GTO on January 05, 2014, with mean perigee and apogee altitudes of 170 km and 35975 km. Four intervals of near linear variation of the mean apogee altitude observed were used in predicting the orbital lifetime. For these four intervals, optimal values of the initial osculating eccentricity and ballistic coefficient for matching the mean apogee altitudes were estimated with the response surface methodology using a genetic algorithm. It was found that the orbital lifetime from these four time spans was between 144 and 148 days.

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Section: Reentry Time Prediction For Gslv-d5mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Lifetime Estimation of the Upper Stage of GSAT-14 in Geostationary Transfer Orbit

David

Sharma

2014

International Scholarly Research Notices

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“…Different methods have been developed in the earlier studies to improve TLE-based re-entry prediction. Saunders et al estimated the ballistic coefficient by comparing the change in the semi-major axis according to TLE data with the change in semi-major axis due to the drag computed by propagation using an initial state from TLEs (Saunders et al 2012;Sang et al 2013;Mutyalarao and Sharma 2011;Lu and Hu 2017). Agueda et al derived pseudo-observations from TLEs and then estimated the ballistic coefficient, solar radiation pressure coefficient, state vector, or a combination of these (Agueda et al 2013;Lidtke et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Re-entry prediction of objects with low-eccentricity orbits based on mean ballistic coefficients

et al. 2020

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During re-entry objects with low-eccentricity orbits traverse a large portion of the dense atmospheric region almost every orbital revolution. Their perigee decays slowly, but the apogee decays rapidly. Because ballistic coefficients change with altitude, re-entry predictions of objects in low-eccentricity orbits are more difficult than objects in nearly circular orbits. Problems in orbit determination, such as large residuals and non-convergence, arise for this class of objects, especially in the case of sparse observations. In addition, it might be difficult to select suitable initial ballistic coefficient for re-entry prediction. We present a new re-entry prediction method based on mean ballistic coefficients for objects with low-eccentricity orbits. The mean ballistic coefficient reflects the average effect of atmospheric drag during one orbital revolution, and the coefficient is estimated using a semi-numerical method with a step size of one period. The method is tested using Iridium-52 which uses sparse observations as the data source, and ten other objects with low-eccentricity orbits which use TLEs as the data source. We also discuss the performance of the mean ballistic coefficient when used in the evolution of drag characteristics and orbit propagation. The results show that the mean ballistic coefficient is ideal for re-entry prediction and orbit propagation of objects with low-eccentricity orbits.

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“…It is, however, more complex and requires the use of the eccentricity from TLEs which is generally less accurate than semimajor axis data. A method for estimating both the BC and initial eccentricity was developed by Sharma et al [16] to improve reentry prediction of upper stages in GTO [21][22][23]. Here the eccentricity and BC are estimated by fitting the apogee altitude according to propagation to TLE apogee data using the response surface methodology.…”

Section: Ballistic Coefficient Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ballistic Coefficient Estimation for Reentry Prediction of Rocket Bodies in Eccentric Orbits Based on TLE Data

Gondelach

Armellín

Lidtke

2017

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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Spent rocket bodies in geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) pose impact risks to the Earth's surface when they reenter the Earth's atmosphere. To mitigate these risks, reentry prediction of GTO rocket bodies is required. In this paper, the reentry prediction of rocket bodies in eccentric orbits based on only Two-Line Element (TLE) data and using only ballistic coefficient (BC) estimation is assessed. The TLEs are preprocessed to filter out outliers and the BC is estimated using only semimajor axis data. The BC estimation and reentry prediction accuracy are analyzed by performing predictions for 101 rocket bodies initially in GTO and comparing with the actual reentry epoch at different times before reentry. Predictions using a single and multiple BC estimates and using state estimation by orbit determination are quantitatively compared with each other for the 101 upper stages.

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On prediction of re-entry time of an upper stage from GTO

Cited by 5 publications

References 7 publications

Lifetime Estimation of the Upper Stage of GSAT-14 in Geostationary Transfer Orbit

Lifetime Estimation of the Upper Stage of GSAT-14 in Geostationary Transfer Orbit

Re-entry prediction of objects with low-eccentricity orbits based on mean ballistic coefficients

Ballistic Coefficient Estimation for Reentry Prediction of Rocket Bodies in Eccentric Orbits Based on TLE Data

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