On Population Models with Delays and Dependence on Past Values

Abstract

The current values of many populations depend on the past values of the population. In many cases, this dependence is caused by the time certain processes take. This dependence on the past can be introduced into mathematical models by adding delays. For example, the growth rate of a population depends on the population τ time units ago, where τ is the maturation time. For an epidemic, there is a time τ between the contact of an infected individual and a susceptible one, and the time the susceptible individual actually becomes infected. This time τ is also a delay. So, the number of infected individuals depends on the population at the time τ units ago. A second way of introducing this dependence on past values is to use non-local operators in the description of the model. Fractional derivatives have commonly been used to provide non-local effects. In population growth models, it can also be done by introducing a new compartment, the immature population, and in epidemic models, by introducing an additional exposed population. In this paper, we study and compare these methods of adding dependence on past values. For models of processes that involve delays, all three methods include dependence on past values, but fractional-order models do not justify the form of the dependence. Simulations show that for the models studied, the fractional differential equation method produces similar results to those obtained by explicitly incorporating the delay, but only for specific values of the fractional derivative order, which is an extra parameter. But in all three methods, the results are improved compared to using ordinary differential equations.