On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models

Graham, L. Phil; Hagemann, Stefan; Jaun, Simon; Beniston, Martin

doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9217-0

Cited by 242 publications

(215 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Finally, the whole area has been subjected to very intense socio-political debate because of the National Water Plan, which proposes to transfer water from inland in the north to the south (from the EBR to the JUC, and SEG hydrological divisions). Therefore, it can be seen once again that changes in mountain or remote areas can affect distant populations (Barnett et al, 2005;Graham et al, 2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal precipitation trends in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula in second half of 20th century

Luis¹,

Gonzalez‐Hidalgo²,

Longares³

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

121

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This is a study of the changes in annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and variability, during the period 1951-2000, using MOPREDA MES . This dataset includes 1113 complete and homogeneous monthly precipitation time series from the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula (IP), and corresponds to the five official Spanish hydrological divisions which drain into the Mediterranean Sea. The time series of annual and seasonal precipitation were used to test for trends. The absolute value of the anomaly time series was also tested for trends to identify changes in interannual variability of precipitation. The significance of these changes was assessed using the non-parametric Spearman rank test. The intensities of observed changes, both on mean values and variability, were estimated by using linear regression techniques. Finally, we analysed the area affected by different trends by using raster maps and spatial statistics, in addition to calculating the global balances for the five hydrological divisions. We detected high variability in precipitation regimes and conditions in the study area; nevertheless, a decrease in seasonal and annual precipitation has predominated in the east of the IP during the second half of the 20th century. On an annual scale, precipitation has diminished over 90.1% of the study area. Additionally, a high percentage of the territory was affected by diminishing precipitation at a seasonal level: 85% (of territory) in summer, 82% in spring, 64% during winter and 61% in autumn. Taking the study area as a whole, seasonal precipitation decreases are ranked as follows: summer (−22.5%), spring (−19.3%), winter (−7.3%), and autumn (−5.2%), with a decrease in the value of the global mean annual precipitation −12.4%. We also detected an increase of precipitation variability in winter (+23.5%) and summer (+11.4%), and a decrease in autumn and spring (−14.9 and −16.8%, respectively) with a global mean value of +7.8%.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal precipitation trends in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula in second half of 20th century

Luis¹,

Gonzalez‐Hidalgo²,

Longares³

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

121

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“…They concluded that the choice of GCM in providing boundary conditions for RCMs plays a larger role in hydrological change than the choice of emissions scenario. Graham et al (2007b) used the same models to obtain estimates of hydrological change for river basins in northern and central Europe. Here, RCMs were able to reproduce the seasonal cycle of precipitation but most overestimated precipitation amounts.…”

Section: Use Of Multiple Model Outputs and Emissions Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling

Fowler

Blenkinsop

Tebaldi

2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

1,904

1,491

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Abstract:There is now a large published literature on the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling methods for different climatic variables, in different regions and seasons. However, little attention is given to the choice of downscaling method when examining the impacts of climate change on hydrological systems. This review paper assesses the current downscaling literature, examining new developments in the downscaling field specifically for hydrological impacts. Sections focus on the downscaling concept; new methods; comparative methodological studies; the modelling of extremes; and the application to hydrological impacts.Consideration is then given to new developments in climate scenario construction which may offer the most potential for advancement within the 'downscaling for hydrological impacts' community, such as probabilistic modelling, pattern scaling and downscaling of multiple variables and suggests ways that they can be merged with downscaling techniques in a probabilistic climate change scenario framework to assess the uncertainties associated with future projections. Within hydrological impact studies there is still little consideration given to applied research; how the results can be best used to enable stakeholders and managers to make informed, robust decisions on adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of many uncertainties about the future. It is suggested that there is a need for a move away from comparison studies into the provision of decision-making tools for planning and management that are robust to future uncertainties; with examination and understanding of uncertainties within the modelling system.

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“…Grams et al, 2014). For applications at smaller scales RCM output may be preferable, but the quality of the RCM output may still largely depend on the performance of the driving GCM (Graham et al, 2007). Coupling to impact models is not part of our study, yet we choose to conduct the evaluation for river basins in the hope that our results will prove informative for such future applications.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25 km AGCM

Schiemann

Vidale

Shaffrey

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Limited spatial resolution is one of the factors that may hamper applications of global climate models (GCMs), in particular over Europe with its complex coastline and orography. In this study, the representation of European mean and extreme precipitation is evaluated in simulations with an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) at different resolutions between about 135 and 25 km grid spacing in the mid-latitudes. The continent-wide root-mean-square error in mean precipitation in the 25 km model is about 25 % smaller than in the 135 km model in winter. Clear improvements are also seen in autumn and spring, whereas the model's sensitivity to resolution is very small in summer. Extreme precipitation is evaluated by estimating generalised extreme value distributions (GEVs) of daily precipitation aggregated over river basins whose surface area is greater than 50 000 km 2 . GEV location and scale parameters are measures of the typical magnitude and of the interannual variability of extremes, respectively. Median model biases in both these parameters are around 10 % in summer and around 20 % in the other seasons. For some river basins, however, these biases can be much larger and take values between 50 % and 100 %. Extreme precipitation is better simulated in the 25 km model, especially during autumn when the median GEV parameter biases are more than halved, and in the North European Plains, from the Loire in the west to the Vistula in the east. A sensitivity experiment is conducted showing that these resolution sensitivities in both mean and extreme precipitation are in many areas primarily due to the increase in resolution of the model orography. The findings of this study illustrate the improved capability of a global high-resolution model in simulating European mean and extreme precipitation.

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On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models

Cited by 242 publications

References 44 publications

Seasonal precipitation trends in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula in second half of 20th century

Seasonal precipitation trends in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula in second half of 20th century

Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling

Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25 km AGCM

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