On Fatalism in Nuclear Proliferation Studies: Questioning a Tenacious Historical Reading

Abstract

The works of most experts in the field of nuclear military issues suggest that the number of nuclear-weapon actors is rising as if it were a law of history. This study shows how the metaphor of “proliferation," transposed from biology to nuclear weapons, could be considered as a source of this belief or as a tool that reinforces it. It then explores the consequences of this reified use of the metaphor, namely the historical narrative that is built upon it and its flaws. Finally, it exposes some of the political consequences of such an approach of nuclear history and proposes new research pathways to investigate other sources of “fatalism" in nuclear proliferation issues and the possibility of a paradigm shift among experts in the field.