On contrail climate sensitivity

Ponater, Michael; Marquart, S.; Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

doi:10.1029/2005gl022580

Cited by 62 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…We therefore expect a smaller climate signal than the corresponding equilibrium response (Ponater et al, 2005). This offers the potential for obtain results of small or no significance; however, the transient response is what will actually occur, in contrast to the more theoretical equilibrium response.…”

Section: For Details)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This inertial behavior has to be taken into account when modeling the transient phase of climate change (Olivié et al, 2012). A few studies have taken this into consideration when investigating the climate impact of aviation emissions (Ponater et al, 2005(Ponater et al, , 2006Lim et al, 2007;Skeie et al, 2009), but they used simplified model approaches to calculate the impact of aviation on climate.…”

Section: P Huszar Et Al: Modeling the Climate Impact Of Aviationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main focus of this paper is the transient 3D temperature response to the aviation emissions over the 1940-2100 period (in contrast to the equilibrium studies of Ponater et al (2005) or Rap et al (2010)), investigating the 1940-2100 period. We therefore expect a smaller climate signal than the corresponding equilibrium response (Ponater et al, 2005).…”

Section: For Details)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the present and future impact of aviation on climate: an AOGCM approach with online coupled chemistry

et al. 2013

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Abstract. Our work is among the first that use an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) with online chemistry to evaluate the impact of future aviation emissions on temperature. Other particularities of our study include non-scaling to the aviation emissions, and the analysis of models' transient response using ensemble simulations. The model we use is the Météo-France CNRM-CM5.1 earth system model extended with the REPROBUS chemistry scheme. The time horizon of our interest is 1940-2100, assuming the A1B SRES scenario. We investigate the present and future impact of aviation emissions of CO 2 , NO x and H 2 O on climate, taking into account changes in greenhouse gases, contrails and contrail-induced cirrus (CIC). As in many transport-related impact studies, we distinguish between the climate impacts of CO 2 emissions and those of non-CO 2 emissions. Aviation-produced aerosol is not considered in the study. Our modeling system simulated a notable sea-ice bias in the Arctic, and therefore results concerning the surface should be viewed with caution. The global averaged near-surface CO 2 impact reaches around 0.1 K by the end of the 21st century, while the non-CO 2 impact reaches 0.2 K in the second half of the century. The NO x emissions impact is almost negligible in our simulations, as our aviation-induced ozone production is small. As a consequence, the non-CO 2 signal is very similar to the CIC signal. The seasonal analysis shows that the strongest warming due to aviation is modeled for the late summer and early autumn.In the stratosphere, a significant cooling is attributed to aviation CO 2 emissions (−0.25 K by 2100). A −0.3 K temperature decrease is modeled when considering all the aviation emissions, but no significant signal appears from the CIC or NO x forcings in the stratosphere.

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Section: For Details)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: P Huszar Et Al: Modeling the Climate Impact Of Aviationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: For Details)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the present and future impact of aviation on climate: an AOGCM approach with online coupled chemistry

et al. 2013

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“…• N. Using an AGCM coupled to a slab ocean m the emission scenario Fa, Ponater et al (2005) foun imum zonal mean temperature impact from aviatio year 2050 of 0.35 K around [40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50] • N at 300-400 hP…”

Section: Atmosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This fast response contributes around 60-80 % to the total long term response. In addition, the deep ocean is responsible for a slow response (which contributes 20-40 %) with an estimated time scale in the order of 100 to 500 yr. For the study of the impact of the transport sectors, this inertia has been taken into account mainly in studies on aviation (Sausen and Schumann, 2000;Ponater et al, 2005Ponater et al, , 2006Lim et al, 2007;Lee et al, 2009). Also slightly more complicated Simple Climate Models (SCMs) which contain a simple representation Atmos.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%