On Becoming Extinct

Abstract

From an impersonal, timeless perspective it is hard to identify good reasons why it should matter that human extinction comes later rather than sooner, particularly if we accept that it does not matter how many human beings there are. We cannot appeal to the natural narrative shape of human history for there is no such thing. We have more local and particular concerns to which we can better appeal but only if an impersonal, timeless perspective is abandoned: only from a generation-centred perspective do such concerns help to make sense of our concern for the timing of our own extinction.

Human Extinction and the Value of Our Efforts

“…At the time of his lecture, which was published in the book, Ostwald was a James Lenman convincingly argues that, from an impersonal standpoint, it does not matter whether humanity will become extinct sooner rather than later. 10 However, he does believe that this matters from a "generation-centered" perspective for reasons similar to those advanced by Partridge and de-Shalit.…”

Existential Risk and Cost-Effective Biosecurity

“…Some scholars, such as Martin Rees, think that humanity has about a 50% chance of going extinct due in large part to such technologies. 49 However, incorporating these intuitions and technological conjectures would mean relying on qualitative arguments that would be far more contentious than our conservative estimates. We therefore proceed to assess the cost-effectiveness on the basis of our conservative models, until superior models of the risk emerge.…”

On the survival of humanity

“…This is a bad argument, as Lenman correctly points out: ‘We may think it a wonderful thing that the world contains many examples of jazz music, but how much should we regret its absence from, say, the world in the sixteenth century?’ (Lenman 2002, 257). Likewise, we don’t bemoan the fact that humans beings didn’t exist in the age of the dinosaurs.…”

“…Like myself, Lenman, considers it ‘a natural thought (…) that the existence of human beings has [final] value, impersonally regarded. And that therefore it is a good thing that human beings should continue to exist for as long as possible’ (Lenman 2002, 255).…”