On a morphology of contact scenario space

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to explore the possibility space of scenarios of 'contact'-the discovery of extra-terrestrial life, whether intelligent or not-using a morphological approach utilising seven principal parameters, chosen both for their descriptiveness of the scope of possibilities, as well as for their relevance in examining potential societal impacts arising from different scenarios, including, for example, the proximity of the discovery. Several classes of contact scenario are examined, and existing approaches to the search for extra-terrestrial life and intelligence are situated within the range of possible search strategies and targets illuminated by this particular choice of parameters, as are some examples of contact scenarios from popular culture. The resulting possibility space can also suggest new search strategies and potential targets, one of which is highlighted-that of 'galaxy-scale macro-engineering'. It is hypothesised that an example of this might already be known to us, namely the intriguing galaxy 'Hoag's Object' (PGC54559), and some specific empirical observations are suggested in order to test this hypothesis. Some possible extensions to the parameters used, as well as some preliminary observations about modelling the range and extent of human societal responses to contact, are also made. Highlights: Applies morphological methods to model the possibility space of discovering extra-terrestrial life  Develops a 7-parameter schema 'LSEARCH' for examining possible detection scenarios  Classifies selected historical and proposed searches, and scenarios drawn from popular culture  Proposes a novel target for closer empirical observation: Hoag's Object (PGC54559)  Discusses and outlines possible extensions to the present schema for further future work

FAR out? An examination of converging, diverging and intersecting smart grid futures in the United Kingdom

“…This might be one of the side effects of us employing negative as well as positive values in assessing pairwise consistency of the factors. One potential solution to analyse 'out of the bound' scenarios could be the use of 'slot machine technique' by allowing the sectors to take unspecified or free values [11]. However, the random nature of such process might void the structured and 'tractable' nature of FAR.…”

“…FAR provides a structured and transparent approach for systematic thinking through a highly ordered series of events. It is a variant of morphological analysis [11,12] and underwent refinement [13][14][15][16], followed by extensions for different types of problems: replacing the tree-structure of scenario development with a network allowing for a gametheoretic approach [17,18], hybridisation with soft-systems methodology [19], and the use of mathematical methods to discover maximally diverse scenarios [20]. FAR has been used in a wide variety of application domains, for example business-related planning [21][22][23], food security [20], military planning [24,25], policy development [26], and the future development of text mining [27].…”

A Case Study of Complex Policy Design: The Systems Engineering Approach

“…In addition, Ölvander et al [66] proposed a computerized optimization framework for the morphological matrix applied to aircraft conceptual design. In the field of scenario space modelling and development, the research conducted by Coyle and McGlone [67], Coyle and Yong [68], Voros [69], and Johansen [25] confirmed that GMA has been extensively applied. Also, as reported by Haydo [70], GMA has been successfully applied to optimize complex industrial operation scenarios.…”

Optimized Morphological Analysis in Decision-Making

“…It has been subject of academic research over many years and it has been applied to a wide variety of fields and contexts such as shown in Table 14.1. (Jimenez and Mavris 2010), (Ostertagová et al 2012), (Ölvander, Lundén, and Gavel 2009), (Sholeh, Ghasemi, and Shahbazi 2018) Design theory and Architecture (Chen and Lai 2010), (Ritchey 2011), (Zeiler 2018), (Kannengiesser, Williams, and Gero 2013) Future studies and Scenario development (Ritchey 2011), (Lopes Correia da Silva 2011), (Duczynski 2017), (Johansen 2018), (Voros 2018), (Haydo 2018) Technological Forecasting/Technology (Yoon 2008), (Feng and Fuhai 2012), (Takane et al 2009), (Yoon, Park, and (Ajith and Ganesh 2009), (Pidd 2009), (Plauché et al 2010), (Kuriakose et al 2010), (Storbacka and Nenonen 2012), (Im and Cho 2013), (Seidenstricker, Scheuerle, and Linder 2014), , (Buzuku, Kraslawski, and Harmaa 2015 • Problem definition,…”