Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries

Abstract

SummarySharp increases in the price of oil are generally seen as a major contributor to business cycle asymmetries. Moreover, the very recent highs registered in the world oil market are causing concern about possible slowdowns in the economic performance of the most developed countries. While several authors have considered the direct channels of transmission of energy price increases, other authors have argued that the economic downturns arose from the monetary policy response to the inflation presumably caused by oil price increases. In this paper a structural cointegrated VAR model has been considered for the G-7 countries in order to study the direct effects of oil price shocks on output and prices and the reaction of monetary variables to external shocks. Empirical analysis shows that, for most of the countries considered, there seems to be an impact of unexpected oil price shocks on interest rates, suggesting a contractionary monetary policy response directed to fight inflation. In turn, increases in interest rates are transmitted to real economy by reducing output growth and the inflation rate.

Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Performance: A Non-Linear Approach (1986-2019)

“…However, previous studies have revealed that the linkage between oil price shocks and stock market performance is not completely linear and that positive oil price shocks (i.e. price decrease) tends to have smaller impact on growth when compared to negative (Cologni and Manera, 2005;Atems and Lame, 2015;Olagbaju and Akinbobola, 2016). The transmission mechanism of oil price shocks to Nigeria stock market returns are ambiguous and the broad effect of oil price shocks on stock returns depends on which of the negative (domestic and imported inflation) or positive (effects of oil prices increase on Nigerian economy) effects offset the other.…”