Oil prices and the terms of trade

International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors

“…To further examine the depth of these two different recessionary periods, we also computed an aggregate world output measure (following Raymond Riezman and Whiteman, 1992) using the size-weighted aggregate output of the countries in our sample, and compare this measure with the estimated world factor. This world aggregate output also has the property that the mid-1970's recession is slightly less severe than that in 1982.15 SeeBackus and Crucini (2000).16 To be more speci c, major oil price increases of 1974 and 1980-1981 were followed by the global recessions of 1975 and 1982. The oil price data is fromBackus and Crucini (2000).…”

“…This world aggregate output also has the property that the mid-1970's recession is slightly less severe than that in 1982.15 SeeBackus and Crucini (2000).16 To be more speci c, major oil price increases of 1974 and 1980-1981 were followed by the global recessions of 1975 and 1982. The oil price data is fromBackus and Crucini (2000).…”

Economic Cycles in Emerging and Advanced Countries

“…33 See Greenberg (2008, p. 35). 4 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Consistent with other studies (see Backus and Crucini 2000), fluctuations in oil prices seemed to be related to turning points of the global economic cycle, in fact significant recessions, as measured by the global cycle indicator, occurred with increases in the price of oil; for example the major oil price increases of the mid-1970s was associated with a global recession.…”

Effects of oil shocks on EMU exports: technological level differences

“…Backus and Crucini (2000) and Baffes (2007) study several channels transmit-ting the impact of oil shocks to trade balance. In the case of trade channel, oil-price impact is mainly dependent on quantity and price of both imports and exports.…”

“…They also find that effectiveness of transmission of trade channel depends on the level of economic development, state of the economy and its role as an oil-exporting or oilimporting country. Backus and Crucini (2000) or Schubert (2009) agree that oil-price shocks can impact negatively trade balance of oil-importing countries because imported oil directly enters into the input for domestic production. 5 Riggi and Venditti (2015) analysed time-varying effect of oil-price shocks on EMU export.…”