Oil Price Shocks in Major Emerging Economies

Azad, Nahiyan Faisal; Serletis, Apostolos

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3577378

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…In addition to diversification efforts that help mitigate inflationary pressures by creating new sources of employment, increasing competition, and expanding the supply of goods and services. Tunisia (as proved by Azad and Serletis, 2020;Abdelsalam, 2023), while an insignificant impact in Algeria (as noted by Benmoussa, 2022). The impact of NX on inflation differs for oil-exporting and oil-importing countries due to their distinct economic dynamics.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 88%

Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR

Elsherif

2024

IJEEP

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This paper aims to examine the dynamic pass-through effect of oil price shocks on inflation in OAPEC countries using quarterly data ranging from 1990:Q1 to 2022:Q4. The incorporation of the TVP-VAR model along with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with stochastic volatility estimation offers a robust framework for capturing the time-varying nature of the relationship. Additionally, the analysis of the Impulse Response Function provides valuable insights into the short-term and long-term dynamics following oil price shocks. The results demonstrate a significant positive pass-through effect of oil prices on inflation in the sample member states, with heterogeneous magnitude and persistence. These variations are attributed to diversity in oil dependency, exchange rate regimes, monetary policy frameworks and the degree of openness to global markets. The study suggests the need for effective inflation management strategies and appropriate policy responses to oil price fluctuations. Furthermore, policymakers may consider adjusting exchange rates, interest rates, or trade policies to manage inflationary pressures effectively.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 88%

Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR

Elsherif

2024

IJEEP

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“…Phan et al ( 2020 ) investigated and reported a conflicting relationship between uncertainty in crude oil prices and the performance of firms at the sectoral and aggregate levels. Azad and Serletis ( 2020 ) examined the impact of oil price volatility on economic activity by using the statistical models. They revealed that uncertainty in oil prices has a significant impact on the GDP of the seven-emerging market (EM7) economies.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Macroeconomic effects of crude oil shocks: Evidence from South Asian countries

et al. 2022

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This research tends to convey the relationship between crude oil price volatility and key macroeconomics indicators, i.e., gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate (IR), interest rate, and exchange rate. The study collected the time-series data (2000–2020) from the South Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka), and employed macroeconomic policy modeling tools (impulse response function and the prediction error variance decomposition technique) in the vector autorepression (VAR) setup. The outcome of the impulse response function explained considerable variance among macroeconomic indicators in response to crude oil price shocks. The macroeconomic indicators are extremely susceptible to minor fluctuations in oil prices causing a significant impact on the region's socioeconomic situation. The result of variance decomposition indicates that each country in the region reacts differently to crude oil price volatility which reflects their macroeconomics fundamentals, independent policy, sector structure, and country differences. The findings support change in public policies in a way to reduce their dependency on oil energy and encourage them toward renewal and green energy sources for better environmental results and sustainable development.

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“…Rising oil prices reduce the availability of inputs and lead to output decreases (see Hamilton [11]). The impact of oil price movements on GDP and several macroeconomic and financial variables for the United States economy has been widely investigated in the literature (see, for example, Barsky and Kilian [12], Kilian and Vigfusson [13], and Azad and Serletis [14], among others). In fact, Azad and Serletis [14] find the linkage between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic indicators of emerging economies to be significant.…”

Section: Research Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil Price Uncertainty, Globalization, and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from the European Union

Балашова

Serletis

2021

Energies

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This paper uncovers linkages between oil price uncertainty, total factor productivity (TFP) growth, and critical indicators of knowledge production and spillovers. It contributes to the literature by investigating the effects of oil price volatility on TFP growth, controlling for two different channels for TFP growth; benefits from the quality of the national innovation system and from adopting new technologies. We use an unbalanced panel for 28 European Union countries for the period from 1990 to 2018. We find that oil price uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant effect on TFP growth, even after we control for technological advancements and the effects of globalization. We also find that the scale of research and innovation and international trade are positive contributors to TFP growth.

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Oil Price Shocks in Major Emerging Economies

Cited by 5 publications

References 27 publications

Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR

Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR

Macroeconomic effects of crude oil shocks: Evidence from South Asian countries

Oil Price Uncertainty, Globalization, and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from the European Union

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