Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance of the Nigerian Economy: A Structural Var Approach

Alenoghena, Raymond Osi

doi:10.22190/fueo200801022a

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…While shedding more light on the nexus between commodity price fluctuations in some commodity-dependent African countries, the result of the structured VAR and descriptive analysis by [5] showed a heterogeneous relationship between shocks from commodity products and economic activities of the countries under investigation. Aligning with this was the study by [13] in Nigeria, using the S-VAR technique of estimation. The study concluded that shocks from oil price affect output and growth significantly and negatively.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…These raw products constitute a higher percentage of the GDP of the EAC as a region [5,11]. However, the available evidence shows that production of goods and by extension services cannot be divorced from energy resources such as oil [12,13]. In essence, shocks from oil prices will not only affect commodity outputs but also the prices in international markets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Monetary Policy, External Shocks and Economic Growth Dynamics in East Africa: An S-VAR Model

2022

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Resulting from the incessant political and economic uncertainty that bedevils the EAC region in the recent past, the various governments have used monetary policy changes in response to shocks from macroeconomic variables. However, the available literature shows a non-agreement by scholars as far as the dynamics in monetary policy, external shocks and macroeconomic activity connections are concerned, for both country-by-country analyses and regional assessments. This article widens the frontiers of knowledge about how the dynamics of monetary policy, external shocks and macroeconomic performance interact within the EAC economic region. We adopted the S-VAR method because of its contemporary nature as far as a transmission of monetary policy approach is concerned. The interconnectivity among the countries of EAC is an indication that any shock to the price of commodities (non-oil commodities) has significant implication on the exchange rate, which will be channelled through the supply of money and monetary policy to the GDP. The need to diversify the productive and export base of member countries, compared to the continuous dependence on one or a few products as the major source of income, is hereby advocated.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monetary Policy, External Shocks and Economic Growth Dynamics in East Africa: An S-VAR Model

2022

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“…In his study, Raymond [22] investigated the stimuli of fluctuations in oil prices on the overall economic performance of Nigeria. The analysis included the time frame spanning from 1980 to 2018.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Petroleum Products Pricing and Price Stability in Nigeria: An ARDL Investigation

Abdullahi,

Alwell,

Ijeoma

2024

AJARR

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This study employed the Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) technique to investigate the effect of petroleum products pricing on price level in Nigeria over the period 1990 – 2022. In order to achieve the purpose of the study, data on inflation rate, price of premium motor spirit, price of automotive gas oil, price of household kerosene, price of compressed natural gas and price of crude oil were sourced from secondary source. The results of our analysis revealed that: in the long run, prices of Premium motor spirit and compressed natural gas retarded inflation level marginally while prices of automotive gas oil, dual purpose kerosene and crude oil spurred general price level marginally. Prices of premium motor spirit and compressed natural gas fueled inflation in the short run significantly while prices of automotive gas oil and crude retarded general price level. Price of dual-purpose kerosene had mixed but significant effect on price level. The study also found that a long run nexus existed between petroleum product prices and price level in Nigeria. Petroleum product prices had serious implications on the Nigeria’s economy in the short run than long run. Based on this conclusion, the study recommended Increase investment in the downstream petroleum sector and strengthening existing policies in the oil and gas sector as possible measures towards stabilizing price level in Nigeria.

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“…They demonstrated with Impulse Respond Function and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition that a one-way causality exists between oil price and macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Alenoghena (2020) examined the effect of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic performance of the Nigerian economy with a SVAR model from 1980-2018. His results revealed that oil price shocks have significant and negative impact on economic growth and industrial output in Nigeria.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic growth and crude oil revenue in Nigeria

Ikue¹,

Amabuike

Denwi

et al. 2022

IJRBS

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This paper investigated how oil revenue and the activities in the oil industry affected the size of income accrue to each Nigerian (Per capita income) from 1980 to 2019. The variables were sourced from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI), OPEC Statistics, Baker Hughes Rig Count and the central bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. Using the AutoRegressive Distributional Lag (ARDL) we observed that explorative activities of crude oil in Nigeria positively impacted the size of individual income. The magnitude of the impact was massive irrespective of time; a 1% increase in exploration increases the size of individual income by 0.4786% in the long run and 0.6030% in the short run. The interaction of rigs by output (interaction of rig-count and oil-production) negatively impacted the size of individual income. This implies that the size of individual income in Nigeria is sensitive to the nature of the explorative environment of the Nigerian oil industry.

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Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance of the Nigerian Economy: A Structural Var Approach

Cited by 5 publications

References 34 publications

Monetary Policy, External Shocks and Economic Growth Dynamics in East Africa: An S-VAR Model

Monetary Policy, External Shocks and Economic Growth Dynamics in East Africa: An S-VAR Model

Petroleum Products Pricing and Price Stability in Nigeria: An ARDL Investigation

Economic growth and crude oil revenue in Nigeria

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