Abstract:Oil price prediction is an important issue for the regulators of the government and the related industries. When employing the time series techniques for prediction, however, it becomes difficult and challenging since the behavior of the series of oil prices is dominated by quantitatively unexplained irregular external factors, e.g., supply-or demand-side shocks, political conflicts specific to events in the Middle East, and direct or indirect influences from other global economical indices, etc. Identifying a… Show more
“…Table 1 shows the TIs used in this research. TIs are often used in predictive experiments with time series data, because they can reduce the noise on the vibrations of time series data [12, 13]. Fig.…”
Background
Influenza continues to pose a serious threat to human health worldwide. For this reason, detecting influenza infection patterns is critical. However, as the epidemic spread of influenza occurs sporadically and rapidly, it is not easy to estimate the future variance of influenza virus infection. Furthermore, accumulating influenza related data is not easy, because the type of data that is associated with influenza is very limited. For these reasons, identifying useful data and building a prediction model with these data are necessary steps toward predicting if the number of patients will increase or decrease. On the Internet, numerous press releases are published every day that reflect currently pending issues.
Results
In this research, we collected Internet articles related to infectious diseases from the Centre for Health Protection (CHP), which is maintained the by Hong Kong Department of Health, to see if news text data could be used to predict the spread of influenza. In total, 7769 articles related to infectious diseases published from 2004 January to 2018 January were collected. We evaluated the predictive ability of article text data from the period of 2013–2018 for each of the weekly time horizons. The support vector machine (SVM) model was used for prediction in order to examine the use of information embedded in the web articles and detect the pattern of influenza spread variance. The prediction result using news text data with SVM exhibited a mean accuracy of 86.7 % on predicting whether weekly ILI patient ratio would increase or decrease, and a root mean square error of 0.611 on estimating the weekly ILI patient ratio.
Conclusions
In order to remedy the problems of conventional data, using news articles can be a suitable choice, because they can help estimate if ILI patient ratio will increase or decrease as well as how many patients will be affected, as shown in the result of research. Thus, advancements in research on using news articles for influenza prediction should continue to be pursed, as the result showed acceptable performance as compared to existing influenza prediction researches.
“…Table 1 shows the TIs used in this research. TIs are often used in predictive experiments with time series data, because they can reduce the noise on the vibrations of time series data [12, 13]. Fig.…”
Background
Influenza continues to pose a serious threat to human health worldwide. For this reason, detecting influenza infection patterns is critical. However, as the epidemic spread of influenza occurs sporadically and rapidly, it is not easy to estimate the future variance of influenza virus infection. Furthermore, accumulating influenza related data is not easy, because the type of data that is associated with influenza is very limited. For these reasons, identifying useful data and building a prediction model with these data are necessary steps toward predicting if the number of patients will increase or decrease. On the Internet, numerous press releases are published every day that reflect currently pending issues.
Results
In this research, we collected Internet articles related to infectious diseases from the Centre for Health Protection (CHP), which is maintained the by Hong Kong Department of Health, to see if news text data could be used to predict the spread of influenza. In total, 7769 articles related to infectious diseases published from 2004 January to 2018 January were collected. We evaluated the predictive ability of article text data from the period of 2013–2018 for each of the weekly time horizons. The support vector machine (SVM) model was used for prediction in order to examine the use of information embedded in the web articles and detect the pattern of influenza spread variance. The prediction result using news text data with SVM exhibited a mean accuracy of 86.7 % on predicting whether weekly ILI patient ratio would increase or decrease, and a root mean square error of 0.611 on estimating the weekly ILI patient ratio.
Conclusions
In order to remedy the problems of conventional data, using news articles can be a suitable choice, because they can help estimate if ILI patient ratio will increase or decrease as well as how many patients will be affected, as shown in the result of research. Thus, advancements in research on using news articles for influenza prediction should continue to be pursed, as the result showed acceptable performance as compared to existing influenza prediction researches.
Forecasting of electricity demand have difficulty in adapting to abrupt weather changes along with a radical shift in major regional and global climates. This has lead to increasing attention to research on the immediate and accurate forecasting model. Technically, this implies that a model requires only a few input variables all of which are easily obtainable, and its predictive performance is comparable with other competing models. To meet the ends, this paper presents an energy demand forecasting model that uses the variable selection or extraction methods of data mining to select only relevant input variables, and employs support vector regression method for accurate prediction. Also, it proposes a novel performance measure for time-series prediction, shift index, followed by description on preprocessing procedure. A comparative evaluation of the proposed method with other representative data mining models such as an auto-regression model, an artificial neural network model, an ordinary support vector regression model was carried out for obtaining the forecast of monthly electricity demand from 2000 to 2008 based on data provided by Korea Energy Economics Institute. Among the models tested, the proposed method was shown promising results than others. 1)
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