Oil Price Asymmetry and Sectoral Output in Nigeria

Ogunjimi, Joshua

doi:10.20448/802.71.1.15

Cited by 14 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 20 publications

(36 reference statements)

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“…Similarly, capital stock has a significant positive growth effect, indicating that investing massively in improving the current level of capital stock is important for stimulating the growth of SSA economies. This result is supported by the findings of Ogunjimi (2020a, 2020b). On the other hand, trade openness hurts the growth of SSA economies, indicating that trade liberalisation policies could dampen growth.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 84%

“…The choice of each explanatory variable is premised on their theoretical and empirical nexus with economic growth. The endogenous growth theory and empirical studies like Ogunjimi (2020aOgunjimi ( , 2020b show that labour and capital have a positive growth effect. Thus, the estimates of these growth-enhancing variables should be positive.…”

Section: Model Specification and Analytical Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Growth effect of trade misinvoicing in Sub-Saharan Africa: the role of governance

Babatunde

Afolabi²

2023

IJDI

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Purpose The growing volume of trade misinvoicing in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) calls for serious concern, particularly given its effect on macroeconomic fundamentals. Despite the growing body of literature on the growth effect of trade misinvoicing, empirical evidence on the role of governance in moderating the effect is quite scarce, particularly for SSA. The purpose of this paper is to provide insights into the growth effect of trade misinvoicing in SSA as well as the moderating role of governance in this regard. Design/methodology/approach The feasible generalised least square estimator was applied to analyse relevant data, spanning 2009–2018, of 35 SSA countries. Governance indicators were classified into economic, political and institutional governance, and their individual role in moderating the nexus between trade misinvoicing and economic growth was explored. Findings This paper showed the presence of cross-sectional dependence among SSA countries and long-run convergence of the estimated variables. The empirical finding showed that trade misinvoicing has a negative growth effect in the selected SSA countries, but both economic and political governance are crucial in lowering the observed negative growth effect. Practical implications To curtail trade misinvoicing, SSA policymakers should go beyond just designing anti-money laundering policies to effectively implementing the policies for improved growth prospects. More so, the government of each SSA country must devise means of strengthening governance and building effective, accountable and transparent institutional frameworks that will constantly check and discourage trade misinvoicing activities. Originality/value The originality of this paper stems from its novel assessment of the role governance plays in moderating the growth effect of trade misinvoicing in SSA using the feasible generalised least square estimator. It also details the strategies needed to effectively tackle trade misinvoicing.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Model Specification and Analytical Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growth effect of trade misinvoicing in Sub-Saharan Africa: the role of governance

Babatunde

Afolabi²

2023

IJDI

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“…Economic growth does not respond significantly to oil price reduction but significantly decreases with oil price increases. Ogunjimi (2020) used NARDL to estimate annual observations from 1981 to 2017 of oil prices and economic output in Nigeria. The economic output was categorized as oil and non‐oil sectors.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag analysis on the macroeconomic effect of global oil price in the Philippines

2023

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Studies have pointed out that oil price volatility influenced economic output and growth among developing and net oil‐importing countries. More than a quarter of the Philippines’ energy demand depends on crude oil, and 99% of the crude oil demand is imported mainly from the Middle East. This study was conducted to determine if there is a nonlinear or asymmetric output response to oil price movements and examine which economic sector in the Philippines is the most vulnerable to oil shocks. This contributes to the literature for a case of developing, oil importing, inflation targeting and post‐oil industry deregulated economy. A nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag model was applied to observe quarterly data from 1998:Q1 to 2019:Q4 of the relevant economic variables. Results revealed an asymmetric effect of non‐oil variables on sectoral performance. World oil prices affect economic sector outputs symmetrically or linearly. The service sector is found to be the most vulnerable sector to oil price shocks. The absence of asymmetry can be attributed to increased competition in the Philippines’ domestic oil industry brought about by oil market deregulation. Improving the energy mix and reducing oil intensity is vital to offset any oil price shock transmission to an oil‐importing economy like the Philippines.

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“…Apart from the loss of financial resources associated with illicit financial outflows, the inability of countries to prevent illicit financial inflows undermines the integrity of the country's financial sector, which is a prerequisite for obtaining international finance (GIZ, 2021). Given that IFF serves as leakages from its source country but an injection to the recipient countries, Sub-Saharan African countries have been deprived of funds needed to achieve economic transformation (Ogunjimi, 2020a(Ogunjimi, , 2020b. To this end, this study evaluates the investment effect of illicit financial flows in Sub-Saharan Africa.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does illicit financial flows crowd‐out domestic investment? Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa economic regions

Afolabi¹

2022

Int. J Fin Econ

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The effect of illicit financial flows (IFFs) on macroeconomic performance has been subjected to debates in the academic and policy arena, albeit with little evidence on its investment effect. This study contributes to the IFF‐investment literature by focusing on the four economic regions in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), where IFFs have been growing consistently. The Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) estimators were utilized to analyse data for the period, 2008–2020. The result signalled inter‐connection among Sub‐Saharan African countries and affirmed the existence of a long‐run relationship among the variables considered. The empirical findings showed that IFFs crowd‐out domestic investment among the four SSA economic regions in the short and long time dimensions. This study, therefore, advocates for synergy among the stakeholders in each economic region to devise deliberate strategies to fight against the menace of IFFs toward successfully achieving Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

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Oil Price Asymmetry and Sectoral Output in Nigeria

Cited by 14 publications

References 20 publications

Growth effect of trade misinvoicing in Sub-Saharan Africa: the role of governance

Growth effect of trade misinvoicing in Sub-Saharan Africa: the role of governance

A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag analysis on the macroeconomic effect of global oil price in the Philippines

Does illicit financial flows crowd‐out domestic investment? Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa economic regions

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