Often Wrong, Never Uncertain: Lessons from 40 Years of State Revenue Forecasting

(1) Background: Currently, logistics operators are struggling with the problem of acquiring new areas to create added value. One of such challenges is acquiring a new function in the form of demand forecasting and coordination skills. The increase in the need to forecast demand is related to the increasing complexity of the distribution network, omnichannel systems and turbulent environment. It is necessary to have a comprehensive approach to the distribution network and to develop competences related to coordination. For the authors, one of the most important coordination factors is the quality of forecasts, especially in relation to modern logistics operators. (2) Methods: In literature studies, the authors combine prognostic abilities with a predisposition to coordinate logistic processes in distribution networks. The aim of the research is to develop a forecasting model that will allow a logistic operator who aspires to coordinate logistics processes to create forecasts in the distribution system. The tool was developed in the R programming language and allows for forecasting based on data from the Warehouse Management System; (3) Results: The quality of forecasts is correlated with the characteristics of the products, the relationship between the manufacturing company and the logistics operator, and the configuration of the distribution network in individual chains. The results of the forecasts were compared with selected features of each of the 5 distribution networks that were tested. In parallel, the attributes of a company capable of forecasting in the distribution network were analyzed. These attributes were also compared to those of the logistics operator. (4) Conclusions: The authors proved that a logistic operator with a set of defined features is capable of generating demand in the entire distribution network.

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“…Forecasts are always burdened with some error. They never describe a given phenomenon with 100% accuracy [25].…”

Section: Factors Influencing the Quality Of Forecasts For Inventory Management In Distribution Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The forecasts in the distribution network determine the quantity of goods to be purchased, produced or delivered. Forecasts create related processes and operations [25]. Demand forecasts should be differentiated from sales forecasts.…”

Section: Factors Influencing the Quality Of Forecasts For Inventory Management In Distribution Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quality of Forecasts as the Factor Determining the Coordination of Logistics Processes by Logistic Operator

Kramarz

Kmiecik

2022

Sustainability

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“…The difficulties in forecasting tax revenues come from a variety of sources, from problems with data and understanding the tax structure to the impact of recessions and the limits of econometric tools (Mikesell, 2018). However, tax revenue forecasting is central to budget planning and fiscal policy reforms which leads researchers on a constant search for better predictions.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tax revenues in the EU

Țibulcă

2021

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an economic crisis with farreaching effects throughout the entire world. In the EU, governments face the need for policies that will counter the negative economic effects. To do this, they require reliable tax revenue predictions to help plan and finance policies that will set the European economies on the road to recovery. The current study aims to offer up-to-date accurate forecasts of tax revenues for the 27 EU member states for the period 2020-2022. A time trend model regression model adjusted with the unemployment rate is estimated for each member state using data for the period 1995-2019. Based on this regression model, forecasts for tax revenues are made. The results show a decline in tax revenues in 2020 and 2021 followed by a slight recovery in 2022 for most EU member states. The study also offers fiscal policy recommendations for the EU aimed at improving and stabilizing tax revenue collection in the future.

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“…And our two Viewpoint contributions in this issue also focus on budget and financial management issues. Mikesell () provides a compelling look at the experience of being wrong, but never uncertain, in state revenue forecasts. And Tokic () explores the challenge of deflation to central bank monetary policy.…”

Section: Measuring Performancementioning

confidence: 99%