Of Precarity and Conspiracy: Introducing A Socio-Functional Model of Conspiracy Beliefs

Abstract

Conspiracy Beliefs (CB) are a key vector of violent extremism, radicalism and unconventional political events (e.g. Brexit). So far, social-psychological research has extensively documented how cognitive, emotional and intergroup factors can promote CB. Evidence also suggests that adherence to CB moves along social class lines: low-income and low-education are among the most robust predictors of CB (Uscinski, 2020; van Prooijen, 2017). Yet, the potential role of precarity – the subjective experience of permanent insecurity stemming from objective material strain – in shaping CB remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose for the first time a socio-functional model of CB. We test the hypothesis that precarity could foster increased CB because it undermines trust in government and the broader political “elites”. Data from the World Value Survey (n = 21,650; Study 1, electoral CB) and from representative samples from polls conducted in France (n = 1760, Study 2a, conspiracy mentality) and Italy (n = 2196, Study 2b, COVID-19 CB), corroborate a mediation model whereby precarity is directly and indirectly associated with lower trust in authorities and higher CB. In addition, these links are robust to adjustment on income, self-reported SES and education. Considering precarity allows for a truly social psychological understanding of CB as the by-product of structural issues (e.g. growing inequalities). Results from our socio-functional model suggest that implementing solutions at the socio-economic level could prove efficient in fighting CB.

Suspecting Foul Play When It Is Objectively There: The Association of Political Orientation with General and Partisan Conspiracy Beliefs as a Function of Corruption Levels

“…Similarly, both correlational and experimental evidence suggest a link between inequality and conspiracy beliefs and this link is mediated by the perception that there is a social dysfunction and chaos (Casara et al, 2022). Precarity (job insecurity) similarly relates to conspiracy beliefs and people with lower sense of security have higher conspiracy beliefs due to their lower level of trust for institutions (Adam-Troian et al, 2021). In places with higher corruption, inequality, and/or precarity, belief in conspiracy theories cannot be considered as being detached from reality, since the probability of being under threat is arguably higher in these contexts (Alper, 2021).…”

Going beyond simplicity: Using machine learning to predict belief in conspiracy theories

“…Socio‐economic factors like income and—more generally—SES may also serve as potential predictors of CT belief. Indeed, stigmatization and feelings of permanent insecurity through material strain (i.e., precarity) associated with low income and SES has been shown to increase CT belief susceptibility (Adam‐Troian et al., 2021). Nevertheless, a clear‐cut relationship between income and SES with CT belief does not seem to arise (cf.…”

In a double‐bind: Time–space distanciation, socioeconomic status, and coping with financial stress in the United States

“…Other contributions to the present Special Issue – notably Adam‐Troian et al (2022) – have attempted data‐driven operationalizations of precarity, that is, through subjective experiences of ontological and financial insecurity. We believe precarity is a complex social process that manifests at multiple levels, and therefore we consider it important to learn from empirical efforts such as those in Adam‐Troian et al, 2022.…”

“…One of the major aims of the present study, and of the Special Issue in which it appears, is to bring social psychological theory and research to bear on the social issue and concept of precarity, heretofore largely explored in other disciplines. Other contributions to the present Special Issue – notably Adam‐Troian et al (2022) – have attempted data‐driven operationalizations of precarity, that is, through subjective experiences of ontological and financial insecurity. We believe precarity is a complex social process that manifests at multiple levels, and therefore we consider it important to learn from empirical efforts such as those in Adam‐Troian et al, 2022.…”